Match Info

ITF MEN - SINGLES: M15 ARAD (ROMANIA), CLAY - QUARTER-FINALS

Date: 28 September 2023, Thursday 🏁 Finished

Location: ARAD (ROMANIA) 🌤️ ... 🔴 Clay


	Matthew Donald		Bogdan Pavel

	1	2
	2.05	1.65
	2.11	1.71
	2.2	1.62
	2.09	1.66	Watch
	2.16	1.62
Avarage Now (Initially)	2.12 ↑ (1.85)	1.65 ↓ (1.85)

The best margin for this event is 5.9%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Matthew Donald
43.8%

Bogdan Pavel
56.2%

Initial Probability (when we started the analysis)

50%

Our Initial ML Estimation

50.3%

49.7%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Matthew Donald has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-6.2%)

Note: This is a significant drop in prediction, indicating that Matthew Donald's form might have worsened.

Bogdan Pavel has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+6.2%)

Note: This is a significant improvement in prediction, suggesting Bogdan Pavel's recent form is better than expected.

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Matthew Donald than the current prediction. (+6.5%)

Note: The ML model's higher estimate suggests a strong performance forecast for Matthew Donald, possibly due to key factors that the model accounted for.

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Bogdan Pavel than the current prediction. (-6.5%)

Note: The ML model's lower estimate suggests a potential downturn for Bogdan Pavel, possibly due to injuries or other negative factors.

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Preview

Recent matches Donald is playing shaky (in the last 5 games wins - 3).

Pavel is in a first-rate shape now (in the last 5 games wins - 4).

Pavel could have advantage in physics - more days for rest in last days.

The chances to win of two players are almost the same in this match.

Our prediction for today's Pavel to win the game is with odds 1.72.

Recently, the players did not play each other.

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Matthew Donald
ITF Tournaments
27.09.23	Filip Cristian Jianu - Matthew Donald	0:2 ✺
26.09.23	Matthew Donald - Darius Florin Pop	2:0 ✺
20.09.23	Martin Krumich - Matthew Donald	2:0 ✺
01.09.23	Matthew Donald - Peter Heller	0:2 ✺
31.08.23	Matthew Donald - Tomas Lanik	2:0 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 14.3 WWLLW
- Bogdan Pavel
ITF Tournaments
27.09.23	Federico Campana - Bogdan Pavel	1:2 ✺
26.09.23	Bogdan Pavel - Dominik Kellovsky	2:0 ✺
06.09.23	Cezar Cretu - Bogdan Pavel	2:0 ✺
03.09.23	Bogdan Pavel - Juan Pablo Paz	2:0 ✺
02.09.23	Bogdan Pavel - Petr Nesterov	2:1 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 15.5 WWLWW

Matthew Donald - Bogdan Pavel

Match Info

Current Win Probability

Preview

Form

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