Match Info

ITF MEN - SINGLES: M25 Poznan, clay - Quarter-finals

Date: 29 August 2025, Friday


	Matthew Donald		Corentin Denolly

	1	2
			Watch
	2.05	1.65
	2.25	1.61
	2.17	1.60	Watch
	2.25	1.57
	2.13	1.65	Watch
	2.5	1.5
Avarage Now (Initially)	2.23 ↓ (2.5)	1.6 ↑ (1.5)

The best margin for this event is 6.6%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Matthew Donald
41.8%

Corentin Denolly
58.2%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

37.5%

62.5%

Our Initial ML Estimation

33.5%

66.5%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Matthew Donald has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+4.3%)

Corentin Denolly has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-4.3%)

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Matthew Donald than the current prediction. (-8.3%)

Note: The ML model's lower estimate suggests that there may be underlying issues with Matthew Donald that the model has picked up on.

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Corentin Denolly than the current prediction. (+8.3%)

Note: The ML model's higher estimate suggests that Corentin Denolly could outperform expectations, possibly based on recent matchups or player stats.

Matthew Donald - Corentin Denolly Predictions

Expected Score (Market Odds): 0:2

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Preview

Donald is ranked ATP: 691. Denolly is ranked ATP: 310.

Both players have been playing unpredictably.

Denolly could have a small edge in this match.

In recent times, the players did not meet on the field.

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Matthew Donald
ITF Tournaments
28.08.25	Alec Beckley - Matthew Donald	Beckley A. retired ✺
26.08.25	Matthew Donald - Mykyta Mashtakov	2:0 ✺
ATP Challenger
17.08.25	Benito Sanchez Martinez - Matthew Donald	2:0 ✺
ITF Tournaments
07.08.25	Adan Freire Da Silva - Matthew Donald	2:1 ✺
06.08.25	Felix Balshaw - Matthew Donald	0:2 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 5 ?WLLW
- Corentin Denolly
ITF Tournaments
28.08.25	Carles Hernandez - Corentin Denolly	0:2 ✺
27.08.25	Marcel Zielinski - Corentin Denolly	0:2 ✺
ATP Challenger
19.08.25	Tadeas Paroulek - Corentin Denolly	2:0 ✺
ITF Tournaments
09.07.25	Mathys Domenc - Corentin Denolly	2:1 ✺
ATP Challenger
01.07.25	Branko Djuric - Corentin Denolly	2:0 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 3.7 WWLLL

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