Match Info

CHALLENGER MEN - SINGLES: Rovereto (Italy) - Qualification, hard (indoor) - Final

Date: 18 November 2024, Monday


	Michael Agwi		Luca Castagnola

	1	2
			Watch
	1.12	5
	1.14	5	Watch
	1.14	5.28
	1.15	5	Watch
	1.17	4.5	Watch
	1.13	5.34	Watch
	1.14	5
Avarage Now (Initially)	1.14 ↓ (1.47)	5.02 ↑ (2.5)

The best margin for this event is 6.7%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Michael Agwi
81.5%

Luca Castagnola
18.5%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

63%

37%

Our Initial ML Estimation

64.9%

35.1%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Michael Agwi has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+18.5%)

Note: This is a significant improvement in prediction, suggesting increased confidence in Michael Agwi's performance.

Luca Castagnola has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-18.5%)

Note: This is a significant drop in prediction, and Luca Castagnola might be facing challenges that affect their performance.

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Michael Agwi than the current prediction. (-16.6%)

Note: The ML model's lower estimate suggests that there may be underlying issues with Michael Agwi that the model has picked up on.

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Luca Castagnola than the current prediction. (+16.6%)

Note: The ML model's higher estimate suggests that Luca Castagnola could outperform expectations, possibly based on recent matchups or player stats.

Michael Agwi - Luca Castagnola Predictions

Expected Score (Market Odds): 2:0

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Preview

Agwi is ranked ATP: 421. Castagnola is ranked ATP: 711.

Both players are now playing unstable.

In this match Agwi is absolute favorite.

Recently, the players did not play each other.

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Michael Agwi
ATP Challenger
17.11.24	Michael Agwi - Oscar Jose Gutierrez	2:0 ✺
03.11.24	Michael Agwi - Dennis Novak	0:2 ✺
ITF Tournaments
12.10.24	Jasza Szajrych - Michael Agwi	2:1 ✺
11.10.24	Alex Knaff - Michael Agwi	0:2 ✺
10.10.24	Markus Molder - Michael Agwi	0:2 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 3.5 WLLWW
- Luca Castagnola
ATP Challenger
17.11.24	Luca Castagnola - Edoardo Lavagno	2:0 ✺
ITF Tournaments
01.11.24	Andrea Guerrieri - Luca Castagnola	2:0 ✺
31.10.24	Oskari Paldanius - Luca Castagnola	1:2 ✺
29.10.24	David Fix - Luca Castagnola	1:2 ✺
23.10.24	Luca Castagnola - Kacper Szymkowiak	1:2 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 6.2 WLWWL

Michael Agwi - Luca Castagnola: Predictions, Live Scores & TV Guide