Match Info

CHALLENGER MEN - SINGLES: Soma Bay 2, hard - 1/16-finals

Date: 20 January 2026, Tuesday 🏁 Finished

Location: Soma Bay 2 🌤️ ... 🔵 Hard


	Michael Geerts		Matteo Martineau

	1	2
	1.83	1.83	Watch
	1.83	1.87	Watch
	1.87	1.83	Watch
	1.83	1.83	Watch
	1.84	1.84	Watch
	1.87	1.85
Avarage Now (Initially)	1.85 ↓ (2)	1.84 ↑ (1.72)

The best margin for this event is 7.5%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Michael Geerts
50%

Matteo Martineau
50%

Initial Probability (when we started the analysis)

46.3%

53.7%

Our Initial ML Estimation

37.5%

62.5%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Michael Geerts has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+3.7%)

Matteo Martineau has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-3.7%)

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Michael Geerts than the current prediction. (-12.5%)

Note: The ML model's lower estimate suggests that there may be underlying issues with Michael Geerts that the model has picked up on.

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Matteo Martineau than the current prediction. (+12.5%)

Note: The ML model's higher estimate suggests that Matteo Martineau could outperform expectations, possibly based on recent matchups or player stats.

Michael Geerts - Matteo Martineau Predictions

Over/Under & Asian Handicap Predictions by Selected Experts:

O/U 2.5 Sets - over (votes: 1 - 100%) .

Verified Performance Core (Selected Experts): Matteo Martineau will win (3 of 3 users predict this - 100%) 🥉 Bronze Tip.

Expected Score (Market Odds): 2:0

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Preview

Geerts is ranked ATP: 287. Martineau is ranked ATP: 277.

Geerts is undoubtedly in great shape (last 5 games: 4 wins).

In recent matches, Martineau has shown inconsistent performance (in the last 5 games, wins – 3).

Martineau may face physical challenges compared to their opponent, as they have played more matches in recent days.

The probability of winning is almost the same for both players in this match.

In the last 1 head-to-head match, Geerts won 0 matches, drew 0 matches, lost 1 match, and goals 0:2.

Last Results with these Odds

Matteo Martineau - the odds 1.72 are the expected chance of winning is 53.67%, but this team recently wins 25% of matches with these odds.

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Michael Geerts
ATP Challenger
07.01.26	Pedro Martinez Portero - Michael Geerts	2:0 ✺
06.01.26	Alexis Gautier - Michael Geerts	1:2 ✺
30.11.25	Arthur Fery - Michael Geerts	1:2 ✺
29.11.25	Michael Geerts - Sandro Kopp	2:0 ✺
28.11.25	Nikolay Vylegzhanin - Michael Geerts	0:2 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 12.3 LWWWW
- Matteo Martineau
ATP Challenger
12.01.26	Petr Bar-Biryukov - Matteo Martineau	2:1 ✺
09.01.26	Pedro Martinez Portero - Matteo Martineau	2:0 ✺
08.01.26	Matteo Martineau - Manas Manoj Dhamne	2:0 ✺
07.01.26	Matteo Martineau - Eric Vanshelboim	2:0 ✺
05.01.26	Jay Clarke - Matteo Martineau	1:2 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 6.9 LLWWW

Latest Head to Head

ATP Challenger
17.02.24	Michael Geerts - Matteo Martineau	0:2

Upcoming Matches

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Michael Geerts
ATP Challenger
27.10.26	Matisse Bobichon - Michael Geerts	✺
26.10.26	Michael Geerts - Niels McDonald	✺
- Matteo Martineau
ATP Challenger
26.10.26	Matteo Martineau - Otto Virtanen	✺

Michael Geerts - Matteo Martineau: Predictions, Live Scores & TV Guide