Match Info

CHALLENGER MEN - SINGLES: Mallorca - Qualification, hard - Final

Date: 26 August 2025, Tuesday


	Michael Geerts		Naoya Honda

	1	2
			Watch
	1.36	2.8
	1.41	2.7	Watch
	1.42	2.82
	1.36	2.99	Watch
	1.36	3	Watch
	1.4	2.81	Watch
Avarage Now (Initially)	1.39 ↑ (1.33)	2.85 ↓ (3.15)

The best margin for this event is 5.9%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Michael Geerts
67.3%

Naoya Honda
32.7%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

70.3%

29.7%

Our Initial ML Estimation

72.4%

27.6%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Michael Geerts has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-3%)

Naoya Honda has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+3%)

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Michael Geerts than the current prediction. (+5.1%)

Note: The ML model's higher estimate suggests a strong performance forecast for Michael Geerts, possibly due to key factors that the model accounted for.

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Naoya Honda than the current prediction. (-5.1%)

Note: The ML model's lower estimate suggests a potential downturn for Naoya Honda, possibly due to injuries or other negative factors.

Michael Geerts - Naoya Honda Predictions

Expected Score (Market Odds): 2:0

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Preview

Geerts is ranked ATP: 311. Honda is ranked ATP: 823.

Recent performances by Geerts have been up and down (last 5 games: 2 wins).

Honda is currently in poor form (in the last 5 games, wins – 1).

Geerts may have a physical advantage due to more rest days in recent times.

In this match, Geerts is considered a favorite.

The players have not played against each other recently.

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Michael Geerts
ATP Challenger
25.08.25	Michael Geerts - Hongjin Qi	2:0 ✺
ITF Tournaments
12.08.25	Michael Geerts - Romain Faucon	Geerts M. retired ✺
ATP Challenger
29.07.25	Michael Geerts - Cedrik-Marcel Stebe	1:2 ✺
22.07.25	Nicolas Kicker - Michael Geerts	2:1 ✺
15.07.25	Max Houkes - Michael Geerts	2:0 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 1.1 W?LLL
- Naoya Honda
ATP Challenger
25.08.25	Naoya Honda - Laurent Lokoli	Lokoli L. retired ✺
19.08.25	Naoya Honda - David Jorda Sanchis	0:2 ✺
11.08.25	Naoya Honda - Duje Ajdukovic	1:2 ✺
ITF Tournaments
30.07.25	Naoya Honda - Branko Djuric	1:2 ✺
24.07.25	Naoya Honda - Amit Vales	0:2 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 4.5 ?LLLL

Michael Geerts - Naoya Honda: Predictions, Live Scores & TV Guide