Match Info

CHALLENGER WOMEN - SINGLES: Birmingham, grass - Quarter-finals

Date: 6 June 2025, Friday


	Mingge Xu		Jessika Ponchet

	1	2
	2.38	1.53	Watch
	2.25	1.62
	2.38	1.52	Watch
	2.5	1.54
	2.48	1.53	Watch
	2.2	1.62
	2.51	1.49	Watch
	2.38	1.52
Avarage Now (Initially)	2.39 ↑ (1.98)	1.55 ↓ (1.77)

The best margin for this event is 4.9%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Mingge Xu
39.3%

Jessika Ponchet
60.7%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

47.2%

52.8%

Our Initial ML Estimation

47%

53%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Mingge Xu has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-7.9%)

Note: This is a significant drop in prediction, indicating that Mingge Xu's form might have worsened.

Jessika Ponchet has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+7.9%)

Note: This is a significant improvement in prediction, suggesting Jessika Ponchet's recent form is better than expected.

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Mingge Xu than the current prediction. (+7.7%)

Note: The ML model's higher estimate suggests a strong performance forecast for Mingge Xu, possibly due to key factors that the model accounted for.

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Jessika Ponchet than the current prediction. (-7.7%)

Note: The ML model's lower estimate suggests a potential downturn for Jessika Ponchet, possibly due to injuries or other negative factors.

Who will win by Users?

1	X	2
60%	0%	40%

Mingge Xu - Jessika Ponchet Predictions

Users Predictions: 5 users predict this event. Xu will win (votes: 3 - 60%). Ponchet will win (votes: 2 - 40%).

Over/Under & Asian Handicap Predictions by Selected Experts:

AH -3.5 Games - Ponchet (2.13) (votes: 1 - 100%) .

AH -1.5 Sets - Ponchet (2.37) (votes: 1 - 100%) .

Overall Expert Consensus (including all markets): 2 Selected Experts predict this event. Ponchet (votes: 2 - 100%).

Expected Score (Market Odds): 0:2

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Preview

Xu is ranked WTA: 410. Ponchet is ranked WTA: 140.

Xu has been on a winning streak and is in great shape (last 5 games: 5 wins).

In recent matches, Ponchet has shown inconsistent performance (in the last 5 games, wins – 3).

Ponchet is expected to have a slight advantage in this match.

The players have not played against each other recently.

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Mingge Xu
ATP Challenger
04.06.25	Mingge Xu - Katarzyna Kawa	2:1 ✺
02.06.25	Alycia Parks - Mingge Xu	0:2 ✺
ITF Tournaments
02.05.25	Mingge Xu - Amelia Rajecki	Xu M. retired ✺
01.05.25	Mingge Xu - Marie Weckerle	Weckerle M. retired ✺
30.04.25	Mingge Xu - Lilian Poling	2:1 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 15.2 WW??W
- Jessika Ponchet
ATP Challenger
04.06.25	Jessika Ponchet - Heather Watson	2:1 ✺
02.06.25	Jessika Ponchet - Vitalia Diatchenko	2:0 ✺
WTA Roland Garros
19.05.25	Lola Radivojevic - Jessika Ponchet	2:0 ✺
ITF Tournaments
10.05.25	Lois Boisson - Jessika Ponchet	2:0 ✺
09.05.25	Alina Charaeva - Jessika Ponchet	1:2 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 7.4 WWLLW

Mingge Xu - Jessika Ponchet: Predictions, Live Scores & TV Guide