Match Info

CHALLENGER MEN - SINGLES: Milan (Italy) - Qualification, clay - Semi-finals

Date: 24 June 2024, Monday


	Moez Echargui		Federico Arnaboldi

	1	2
			Watch
	2.2	1.57
	2.4	1.51	Watch
	2.42	1.54
	2.42	1.54
	2.25	1.57	Watch
	2.53	1.49	Watch
	2.37	1.5
Avarage Now (Initially)	2.37 ↑ (2.08)	1.53 ↓ (1.67)

The best margin for this event is 6.3%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Moez Echargui
39.3%

Federico Arnaboldi
60.7%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

44.5%

55.5%

Our Initial ML Estimation

43.5%

56.5%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Moez Echargui has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-5.2%)

Note: This is a significant drop in prediction, indicating that Moez Echargui's form might have worsened.

Federico Arnaboldi has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+5.2%)

Note: This is a significant improvement in prediction, suggesting Federico Arnaboldi's recent form is better than expected.

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Moez Echargui than the current prediction. (+4.2%)

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Federico Arnaboldi than the current prediction. (-4.2%)

Who will win by Users?

1	X	2
25%	0%	75%

Moez Echargui - Federico Arnaboldi Predictions

Users Predictions: 12 users predict this event. Echargui will win (votes: 3 - 25%). Arnaboldi will win (votes: 9 - 75%).
Confidence interval (95%) for Arnaboldi: 50.5% – 99.5%.

Expected Score (Market Odds): 0:2

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Preview

Recent matches Echargui is playing shaky (in the last 5 games wins - 2).

Arnaboldi is in cheap shape now (in the last 5 games wins - 1).

Arnaboldi could have advantage in physics - more days for rest in last days.

Arnaboldi will have a small advantage in this match.

Last 2 head-to-head matches Echargui won 1 matches, drawn 0 matches, lost 1 matches and goals 2-3.

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Moez Echargui
ATP Challenger
20.06.24	Calvin Hemery - Moez Echargui	2:0 ✺
19.06.24	Moez Echargui - Vadym Ursu	2:0 ✺
09.06.24	Moez Echargui - Federico Arnaboldi	0:2 ✺
03.06.24	Nikoloz Basilashvili - Moez Echargui	2:1 ✺
02.06.24	Koray Kirci - Moez Echargui	1:2 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 2.5 LWLLW
- Federico Arnaboldi
ATP Challenger
19.06.24	Federico Coria - Federico Arnaboldi	2:1 ✺
18.06.24	Bernabe Zapata Miralles - Federico Arnaboldi	Zapata Miralles B. retired ✺
12.06.24	Bernabe Zapata Miralles - Federico Arnaboldi	2:0 ✺
11.06.24	Elias Ymer - Federico Arnaboldi	Canceled ✺
11.06.24	Gianluca Mager - Federico Arnaboldi	0:2 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 9.3 L?L?W

Latest Head to Head

ATP Challenger
09.06.24	Moez Echargui - Federico Arnaboldi	0:2
ITF Tournaments
04.07.22	Moez Echargui - Federico Arnaboldi	2:1

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