Match Info

ITF MEN - SINGLES: M25 Urayasu, hard - Semi-finals

Date: 4 September 2026, Friday


	Naoki Nakagawa		Kuan-Yi Lee

	1	2
			Watch
	1.36	2.80
	1.26	3.50
	1.38	3.07
	1.35	2.9	Watch
	1.36	2.82	Watch
Avarage Now (Initially)	1.34 ↓ (1.46)	3.02 ↑ (2.55)

The most likely Over/Under: 20.50

The best margin for this event is 5%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Naoki Nakagawa
69.2%

Kuan-Yi Lee
30.8%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

63.6%

36.4%

Our Initial ML Estimation

58.7%

41.3%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Naoki Nakagawa has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+5.6%)

Note: This is a significant improvement in prediction, suggesting increased confidence in Naoki Nakagawa's performance.

Kuan-Yi Lee has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-5.6%)

Note: This is a significant drop in prediction, and Kuan-Yi Lee might be facing challenges that affect their performance.

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Naoki Nakagawa than the current prediction. (-10.5%)

Note: The ML model's lower estimate suggests that there may be underlying issues with Naoki Nakagawa that the model has picked up on.

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Kuan-Yi Lee than the current prediction. (+10.5%)

Note: The ML model's higher estimate suggests that Kuan-Yi Lee could outperform expectations, possibly based on recent matchups or player stats.

Naoki Nakagawa - Kuan Yi Lee Predictions

Expected Score (Market Odds): 2:0

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Preview

Nakagawa is ranked ATP: 782. Lee is ranked ATP: 616.

Nakagawa is showing really good form (last 5 games: 4 wins).

Lee has been unpredictable lately (in the last 5 games, wins – 3).

Nakagawa may face physical challenges compared to their opponent, as they have played more matches in recent days.

In this match, Nakagawa is seen as the favorite.

The players have not played against each other recently.

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Naoki Nakagawa
ITF Tournaments
03.09.26	Naoki Nakagawa - Ryota Tanuma	2:0 ✺
02.09.26	Naoya Honda - Naoki Nakagawa	0:2 ✺
01.09.26	Naoki Nakagawa - Yua Taka	2:0 ✺
13.08.26	Max Sheldon - Naoki Nakagawa	2:0 ✺
12.08.26	Cooper Woestendick - Naoki Nakagawa	1:2 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 7.5 WWWLW
- Kuan-Yi Lee
ITF Tournaments
03.09.26	Kuan-Yi Lee - Sora Fukuda	2:0 ✺
02.09.26	Kuan-Yi Lee - Makoto Ochi	2:1 ✺
31.08.26	Kuan-Yi Lee - Sho Katayama	Katayama S. Retired ✺
25.08.26	Hikaru Shiraishi - Kuan-Yi Lee	Lee K. Retired ✺
19.08.26	Noritaka Koizumi - Kuan-Yi Lee	Interrupted ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 7.3 WW???

Naoki Nakagawa - Kuan-Yi Lee: Predictions, Live Scores & TV Guide