Match Info

CHALLENGER MEN - SINGLES: OEIRAS 2 (PORTUGAL), HARD (INDOOR) - 1/16-FINALS

Date: 9 January 2024, Tuesday


	Nicolas Alvarez Varona		Elmer Moeller

	1	2
	2.75	1.4	Watch
	2.55	1.45
	2.5	1.48
	2.59	1.51
	2.59	1.51
	2.5	1.5	Watch
	2.62	1.46	Watch
	2.6	1.44
Avarage Now (Initially)	2.59 ↓ (2.97)	1.47 ↑ (1.35)

The best margin for this event is 4.8%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Nicolas Alvarez Varona
36.2%

Elmer Moeller
63.8%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

31.3%

68.7%

Our Initial ML Estimation

29.4%

70.6%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Nicolas Alvarez Varona has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+4.9%)

Elmer Moeller has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-4.9%)

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Nicolas Alvarez Varona than the current prediction. (-6.8%)

Note: The ML model's lower estimate suggests that there may be underlying issues with Nicolas Alvarez Varona that the model has picked up on.

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Elmer Moeller than the current prediction. (+6.8%)

Note: The ML model's higher estimate suggests that Elmer Moeller could outperform expectations, possibly based on recent matchups or player stats.

Nicolas Alvarez Varona - Elmer Moeller Predictions

Expected Score (Market Odds): 0:2

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Preview

Recent matches Alvarez Varona is playing shaky (in the last 5 games wins - 2).

Moeller is in super good shape now (in the last 5 games wins - 4).

Alvarez Varona could have advantage in physics - more days for rest in last days.

Moeller will have a mini benefit in this match.

Our prediction for today's Moeller to win the game is with odds 1.47.

Recently, the players did not play each other.

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Nicolas Alvarez Varona
ATP Challenger
09.01.24	Nicolas Alvarez Varona - Oscar Otte	Canceled ✺
02.01.24	Nicolas Alvarez Varona - Paul Jubb	0:2 ✺
28.11.23	Nicolas Alvarez Varona - Kilian Feldbausch	Alvarez Varona N. retired ✺
20.11.23	Miguel Damas - Nicolas Alvarez Varona	2:0 ✺
19.11.23	Nicolas Alvarez Varona - Lorenzo Giustino	2:0 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 10.2 ?L?LW
- Elmer Moeller
ATP Challenger
08.01.24	Elmer Moeller - Mathys Erhard	2:0 ✺
07.01.24	Toby Alex Kodat - Elmer Moeller	1:2 ✺
ITF Tournaments
02.01.24	Elmer Moeller - Nikoloz Basilashvili	0:2 ✺
26.11.23	Elmer Moeller - Jakub Nicod	2:0 ✺
25.11.23	Elmer Moeller - Millen Hurrion	2:0 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 9.3 WWLWW

Nicolas Alvarez Varona - Elmer Moeller: Predictions, Live Scores & TV Guide