Match Info

CHALLENGER MEN - SINGLES: Florianopolis, clay - 1/16-finals

Date: 19 November 2025, Wednesday


	Orlando Luz		Carlos Maria Zarate

	1	2
	1.62	2.2	Watch
			Watch
	1.6	2.19
	1.53	2.54
	1.53	2.34	Watch
	1.62	2.16	Watch
	2.05	1.63
Avarage Now (Initially)	1.66 ↓ (2.1)	2.18 ↑ (1.67)

The best margin for this event is 4.7%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Orlando Luz
56.8%

Carlos Maria Zarate
43.2%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

44.3%

55.7%

Our Initial ML Estimation

43.4%

56.6%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Orlando Luz has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+12.5%)

Note: This is a significant improvement in prediction, suggesting increased confidence in Orlando Luz's performance.

Carlos Maria Zarate has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-12.5%)

Note: This is a significant drop in prediction, and Carlos Maria Zarate might be facing challenges that affect their performance.

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Orlando Luz than the current prediction. (-13.4%)

Note: The ML model's lower estimate suggests that there may be underlying issues with Orlando Luz that the model has picked up on.

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Carlos Maria Zarate than the current prediction. (+13.4%)

Note: The ML model's higher estimate suggests that Carlos Maria Zarate could outperform expectations, possibly based on recent matchups or player stats.

Who will win by Users?

1	X	2
100%	0%	0%

Orlando Luz - Carlos Maria Zarate Predictions

Over/Under & Asian Handicap Predictions by Selected Experts:

AH -1.5 Games - Luz (1.77) (votes: 1 - 100%) .

Verified Performance Core (Selected Experts): Orlando Luz will win (6 of 6 users predict this - 100%) 🥇 Gold Tip.

Overall Expert Consensus (including all markets): 7 Selected Experts predict this event. Luz (votes: 7 - 100%).

Expected Score (Market Odds): 2:0

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Preview

Luz is ranked ATP: 987. Zarate is ranked ATP: 674.

In recent matches, Luz has shown inconsistent form (last 5 games: 3 wins).

Zarate is in great form at the moment (in the last 5 games, wins – 4).

Zarate may face physical challenges compared to their opponent, as they have played more matches in recent days.

The probability of winning is almost the same for both players in this match.

We predict that Zarate will win today's game, with odds of 1.66.

Recently, there has been no match between the players.

Last Results with these Odds

Orlando Luz - the odds 2.1 are the expected chance of winning is 44.28%, but this team recently wins 57% of matches with these odds.

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Orlando Luz
ATP Challenger
17.11.25	Orlando Luz - Natan Rodrigues	2:0 ✺
16.11.25	Orlando Luz - Daniel Vecchio Couldrey Rebelo	2:0 ✺
19.10.25	Andrea Collarini - Orlando Luz	2:0 ✺
28.09.25	Orlando Luz - Cezar Cretu	Canceled ✺
22.09.25	Alejandro Moro Canas - Orlando Luz	Moro Canas A. walkover ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 5.8 WWL??
- Carlos Maria Zarate
ATP Challenger
17.11.25	Carlos Maria Zarate - Franco Ribero	2:1 ✺
16.11.25	Carlos Maria Zarate - Victor Braga	2:0 ✺
ITF Tournaments
13.11.25	Ramiro Amarilla - Carlos Maria Zarate	0:2 ✺
12.11.25	Leonel Cesar Castro - Carlos Maria Zarate	0:2 ✺
ATP Challenger
30.10.25	Arklon Huertas Del Pino - Carlos Maria Zarate	2:0 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 5.9 WWWWL

Orlando Luz - Carlos Maria Zarate: Predictions, Live Scores & TV Guide