Match Info

CHALLENGER WOMEN - SINGLES: Caldas da Rainha, hard - 1/16-finals

Date: 15 September 2025, Monday


	Polina Iatcenko		Matilde Jorge

	1	2
	1.73	2	Watch
	1.72	2
	1.73	1.99	Watch
	1.71	2.07	Watch
	1.73	2.02	Watch
Avarage Now (Initially)	1.72 ↓ (2.5)	2.02 ↑ (1.5)

The best margin for this event is 6.8%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Polina Iatcenko
53.9%

Matilde Jorge
46.1%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

37.5%

62.5%

Our Initial ML Estimation

35.5%

64.5%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Polina Iatcenko has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+16.4%)

Note: This is a significant improvement in prediction, suggesting increased confidence in Polina Iatcenko's performance.

Matilde Jorge has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-16.4%)

Note: This is a significant drop in prediction, and Matilde Jorge might be facing challenges that affect their performance.

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Polina Iatcenko than the current prediction. (-18.4%)

Note: The ML model's lower estimate suggests that there may be underlying issues with Polina Iatcenko that the model has picked up on.

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Matilde Jorge than the current prediction. (+18.4%)

Note: The ML model's higher estimate suggests that Matilde Jorge could outperform expectations, possibly based on recent matchups or player stats.

Who will win by Users?

1	X	2
80%	0%	20%

Polina Iatcenko - Matilde Jorge Predictions

Users Predictions: 10 users predict this event. Iatcenko will win (votes: 8 - 80%). Jorge will win (votes: 2 - 20%).
Confidence interval (95%) for Iatcenko: 55.2% – 100%.

Verified Performance Core (Selected Experts): 3 Selected Experts predict this event. Iatcenko (votes: 2 - 66.7%). Jorge (votes: 1 - 33.3%).

Expected Score (Market Odds): 2:0

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Preview

Iatcenko is ranked WTA: 292. Jorge is ranked WTA: 212.

Both players are showing inconsistent performances lately.

Jorge may have a physical advantage due to more rest days in recent times.

Jorge is expected to have a slight advantage in this match.

In the last 1 head-to-head match, Iatcenko won 0 matches, drew 0 matches, lost 1 match, and goals 0:2.

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Polina Iatcenko
ITF Tournaments
13.09.25	Greetje Minnen - Polina Iatcenko	2:1 ✺
12.09.25	Sofia Costoulas - Polina Iatcenko	Costoulas S. retired ✺
11.09.25	Polina Iatcenko - Harmony Tan	2:0 ✺
09.09.25	Sofya Lansere - Polina Iatcenko	1:2 ✺
15.08.25	Elena Micic - Polina Iatcenko	2:1 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 7.7 L?WWL
- Matilde Jorge
ITF Tournaments
11.09.25	Matilde Jorge - Angelina Voloshchuk	0:2 ✺
10.09.25	Matilde Jorge - Brandy Walker	2:0 ✺
05.09.25	Matilde Jorge - Harmony Tan	0:2 ✺
04.09.25	Matilde Jorge - Astrid Wanja Brune Olsen	2:0 ✺
03.09.25	Matilde Jorge - Carol Young Suh Lee	2:1 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 5.7 LWLWW

Latest Head to Head

ITF Tournaments
14.06.25	Polina Iatcenko - Matilde Jorge	0:2

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