Match Info

CHALLENGER WOMEN - SINGLES: Buenos Aires, clay - 1/16-finals

Date: 24 November 2025, Monday


	Polona Hercog		Jasmin Ortenzi

	1	2
	1.5	2.5	Watch
	1.51	2.39	Watch
	1.54	2.5
	1.52	2.36	Watch
	1.5	2.42	Watch
	1.53	2.53
Avarage Now (Initially)	1.52 ↓ (1.73)	2.45 ↑ (2)

The best margin for this event is 4.9%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Polona Hercog
61.8%

Jasmin Ortenzi
38.2%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

53.6%

46.4%

Our Initial ML Estimation

53.5%

46.5%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Polona Hercog has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+8.2%)

Note: This is a significant improvement in prediction, suggesting increased confidence in Polona Hercog's performance.

Jasmin Ortenzi has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-8.2%)

Note: This is a significant drop in prediction, and Jasmin Ortenzi might be facing challenges that affect their performance.

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Polona Hercog than the current prediction. (-8.3%)

Note: The ML model's lower estimate suggests that there may be underlying issues with Polona Hercog that the model has picked up on.

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Jasmin Ortenzi than the current prediction. (+8.3%)

Note: The ML model's higher estimate suggests that Jasmin Ortenzi could outperform expectations, possibly based on recent matchups or player stats.

Who will win by Users?

1	X	2
25%	0%	75%

Polona Hercog - Jasmin Ortenzi Predictions

Users Predictions: 4 users predict this event. Hercog will win (votes: 1 - 25%). Ortenzi will win (votes: 3 - 75%).

Expected Score (Market Odds): 2:0

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Preview

Hercog is ranked WTA: 884. Ortenzi is ranked WTA: 216.

Both players are showing inconsistent performances lately.

Ortenzi may have a physical advantage due to more rest days in recent times.

The probability of winning is almost the same for both players in this match.

In the last 1 head-to-head match, Hercog won 1 match, drew 0 matches, lost 0 matches, and goals 2:0.

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Polona Hercog
ATP Challenger
21.11.25	Polona Hercog - Oleksandra Oliynykova	0:2 ✺
20.11.25	Panna Udvardy - Polona Hercog	0:2 ✺
18.11.25	Jasmin Ortenzi - Polona Hercog	0:2 ✺
16.11.25	Valeriya Strakhova - Polona Hercog	0:2 ✺
03.11.25	Polona Hercog - Mayar Sherif	0:2 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 12.7 LWWWL
- Jasmin Ortenzi
ATP Challenger
18.11.25	Jasmin Ortenzi - Polona Hercog	0:2 ✺
07.11.25	Despina Papamichail - Jasmin Ortenzi	2:0 ✺
06.11.25	Jasmin Ortenzi - Ekaterine Gorgodze	2:0 ✺
05.11.25	Candela Vazquez - Jasmin Ortenzi	0:2 ✺
01.11.25	Sinja Kraus - Jasmin Ortenzi	2:1 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 3.8 LLWWL

Latest Head to Head

ATP Challenger
18.11.25	Jasmin Ortenzi - Polona Hercog	0:2

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