Match Info

CHALLENGER WOMEN - SINGLES: Lisbon, clay - 1/8-finals

Date: 14 October 2026, Wednesday 🏁 Finished

Location: Lisbon 🌤️ ... 🔴 Clay


	Polona Hercog		Jasmin Ortenzi

	1	2
	1.91	1.8	Watch
	1.90	1.85
	1.9	1.8	Watch
	1.91	1.81	Watch
	1.93	1.86
	1.98	1.83	Watch
	1.95	1.75
Avarage Now (Initially)	1.93 ↑ (1.8)	1.81 ↓ (1.91)

The most likely Over/Under: 21.00

The best margin for this event is 5.1%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Polona Hercog
48.5%

Jasmin Ortenzi
51.5%

Initial Probability (when we started the analysis)

51.5%

48.5%

Our Initial ML Estimation

46.6%

53.4%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Polona Hercog has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-3%)

Jasmin Ortenzi has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+3%)

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Polona Hercog than the current prediction. (-1.9%)

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Jasmin Ortenzi than the current prediction. (+1.9%)

Who will win by Users?

1	X	2
33.3%	0%	66.7%

Polona Hercog - Jasmin Ortenzi Predictions

Users Predictions: 3 users predict this event. Hercog will win (votes: 1 - 33.3%). Ortenzi will win (votes: 2 - 66.7%).

Expected Score (Market Odds): 0:2

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Preview

Hercog is ranked WTA: 224., and Ortenzi is ranked WTA: 155..

Each of the two players is seeking greater consistency after recent ups and downs.

Ortenzi could enjoy a physical edge thanks to more rest days ahead of this match.

The probabilities of winning are closely matched between the two contenders.

In the last 2 head-to-head meetings, Hercog has recorded 1 win, 0 draws, and 1 loss, with a goal aggregate of 3:2 (averaging 1.5:1 goals per game).

Last Results with these Odds

Polona Hercog - the odds 1.8 are the expected chance of winning is 51.48%, but this team recently wins 14% of matches with these odds.

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Polona Hercog
ATP Challenger
13.10.26	Madalena Matias - Polona Hercog	0:2 ✺
ITF Tournaments
06.10.26	Alena Kovackova - Polona Hercog	2:0 ✺
02.10.26	Lisa Pigato - Polona Hercog	2:1 ✺
01.10.26	Naiktha Bains - Polona Hercog	1:2 ✺
30.09.26	Ayana Akli - Polona Hercog	1:2 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 8.7 WLLWW
- Jasmin Ortenzi
ATP Challenger
12.10.26	Barbora Palicova - Jasmin Ortenzi	0:2 ✺
ITF Tournaments
09.10.26	Ane Mintegi Del Olmo - Jasmin Ortenzi	2:1 ✺
08.10.26	Ilinca Dalina Amariei - Jasmin Ortenzi	0:2 ✺
07.10.26	Laura Mair - Jasmin Ortenzi	0:2 ✺
WTA Sao Paulo
17.09.26	Jasmin Ortenzi - Paula Badosa	1:2 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 8.4 WLWWL

Latest Head to Head

ATP Challenger
24.11.25	Polona Hercog - Jasmin Ortenzi	1:2
18.11.25	Jasmin Ortenzi - Polona Hercog	0:2

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