Match Info

ITF MEN - SINGLES: M25 Toulouse-Balma, hard - 1/16-finals

Date: 18 March 2026, Wednesday


	Raphael Perot		Marvin Moeller

	1	2
			Watch
	2.09	1.76
	2.08	1.65	Watch
	2	1.7
	2.05	1.67	Watch
Avarage Now (Initially)	2.06 ↑ (1.83)	1.7 ↓ (1.83)

The best margin for this event is 4.7%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Raphael Perot
45.2%

Marvin Moeller
54.8%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

50%

Our Initial ML Estimation

49.8%

50.2%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Raphael Perot has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-4.8%)

Marvin Moeller has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+4.8%)

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Raphael Perot than the current prediction. (+4.6%)

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Marvin Moeller than the current prediction. (-4.6%)

Raphael Perot - Marvin Moeller Predictions

Expected Score (Market Odds): 0:2

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Preview

Perot is ranked ATP: 365. Moeller is ranked ATP: 454.

Recent form of Perot has been disappointing (last 5 games: 1 wins).

Moeller is in superb shape, having picked up a string of victories recently (last 5 games: 5 wins).

Moeller may face physical challenges compared to their opponent, as they have played more matches in recent days.

The probability of winning is almost the same for both players in this match.

We predict that Moeller will win today's game, with odds of 1.75.

In the last 1 head-to-head match, Perot won 1 match, drew 0 matches, lost 0 matches, and goals 2:0.

Last Results with these Odds

Marvin Moeller - the odds 1.83 are the expected chance of winning is 50%, but this team recently wins 38% of matches with these odds.

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Raphael Perot
ATP Challenger
10.03.26	Raphael Perot - Filippo Romano	1:2 ✺
ITF Tournaments
06.03.26	Raphael Perot - Yanis Ghazouani Durand	1:2 ✺
04.03.26	Raphael Perot - Mathys Picard	2:1 ✺
ATP Challenger
24.02.26	Raphael Perot - Pierre-Hugues Herbert	0:2 ✺
12.02.26	Raphael Perot - Daniel Milavsky	1:2 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 1.1 LLWLL
- Marvin Moeller
ITF Tournaments
15.03.26	Charles Broom - Marvin Moeller	0:2 ✺
14.03.26	Marvin Moeller - Arthur Nagel	2:1 ✺
13.03.26	Marvin Moeller - Hamish Stewart	2:0 ✺
12.03.26	Marvin Moeller - Kai Wehnelt	2:0 ✺
10.03.26	Marvin Moeller - Maxence Bertimon	2:1 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 13.9 WWWWW

Latest Head to Head

ITF Tournaments
14.03.25	Raphael Perot - Marvin Moeller	2:0

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