Match Info

CHALLENGER MEN - SINGLES: TENERIFE 2 (SPAIN), HARD - FINAL

Date: 5 February 2023, Sunday


	Raul Brancaccio		Matteo Arnaldi

	1	2
	2	1.73	Watch
	2.1	1.65
	2.14	1.7
	2.21	1.69
	2	1.73	Watch
	2.16	1.66	Watch
	2.12	1.73
Avarage Now (Initially)	2.1 ↑ (1.82)	1.7 ↓ (1.98)

The best margin for this event is 4.4%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Raul Brancaccio
44.7%

Matteo Arnaldi
55.3%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

52.1%

47.9%

Our Initial ML Estimation

51.9%

48.1%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Raul Brancaccio has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-7.4%)

Note: This is a significant drop in prediction, indicating that Raul Brancaccio's form might have worsened.

Matteo Arnaldi has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+7.4%)

Note: This is a significant improvement in prediction, suggesting Matteo Arnaldi's recent form is better than expected.

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Raul Brancaccio than the current prediction. (+7.2%)

Note: The ML model's higher estimate suggests a strong performance forecast for Raul Brancaccio, possibly due to key factors that the model accounted for.

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Matteo Arnaldi than the current prediction. (-7.2%)

Note: The ML model's lower estimate suggests a potential downturn for Matteo Arnaldi, possibly due to injuries or other negative factors.

Who will win by Users?

1	X	2
23.1%	0%	76.9%

Raul Brancaccio - Matteo Arnaldi Predictions

Users Predictions: 13 users predict this event. Brancaccio will win (votes: 3 - 23.1%). Arnaldi will win (votes: 10 - 76.9%).
Confidence interval (95%) for Arnaldi: 54% – 99.8%.

Expected Score (Market Odds): 0:2

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Preview

Recent matches Brancaccio is playing changeable (in the last 5 games wins - 3).

Arnaldi is in super good shape now (in the last 5 games wins - 4).

Arnaldi could have problems with physics compare with it opponent - last days they played more matches than their opponents.

In this match the chances to win of both players are almost equal.

Last 3 head-to-head matches Brancaccio won 2 matches, drawn 1 matches, lost 0 matches and goals 4-2.

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Raul Brancaccio
ATP Challenger
04.02.23	Lloyd Harris - Raul Brancaccio	Brancaccio R. walkover ✺
03.02.23	Raul Brancaccio - Carlos Taberner	2:1 ✺
02.02.23	Raul Brancaccio - Daniel Cox	2:0 ✺
31.01.23	Raul Brancaccio - Nikola Milojevic	2:1 ✺
24.01.23	Frederico Ferreira Silva - Raul Brancaccio	2:0 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 8.5 ?WWWL
- Matteo Arnaldi
ATP Challenger
04.02.23	Nicolas Alvarez Varona - Matteo Arnaldi	0:2 ✺
03.02.23	Oleksii Krutykh - Matteo Arnaldi	0:2 ✺
02.02.23	Shintaro Mochizuki - Matteo Arnaldi	1:2 ✺
31.01.23	Alessandro Giannessi - Matteo Arnaldi	1:2 ✺
25.01.23	Sebastian Ofner - Matteo Arnaldi	2:1 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 6.7 WWWWL

Latest Head to Head

ATP Challenger
29.07.22	Raul Brancaccio - Matteo Arnaldi	2:1
ITF Tournaments
06.08.21	Raul Brancaccio - Matteo Arnaldi	Brancaccio R. retired
Exhibition Italian Championship Men
23.06.20	Raul Brancaccio - Matteo Arnaldi	2:1

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