Match Info

CHALLENGER MEN - SINGLES: TENERIFE 2 (SPAIN), HARD - 1/8-FINALS

Date: 2 February 2023, Thursday


	Shintaro Mochizuki		Matteo Arnaldi

	1	2
	3.25	1.33	Watch
	2.9	1.36
	3.1	1.35
	3.12	1.37
	3.25	1.33	Watch
	3.06	1.34	Watch
	3.1	1.32
Avarage Now (Initially)	3.11 ↑ (2.46)	1.34 ↓ (1.47)

The best margin for this event is 5%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Shintaro Mochizuki
30.1%

Matteo Arnaldi
69.9%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

37.4%

62.6%

Our Initial ML Estimation

37.2%

62.8%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Shintaro Mochizuki has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-7.3%)

Note: This is a significant drop in prediction, indicating that Shintaro Mochizuki's form might have worsened.

Matteo Arnaldi has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+7.3%)

Note: This is a significant improvement in prediction, suggesting Matteo Arnaldi's recent form is better than expected.

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Shintaro Mochizuki than the current prediction. (+7.1%)

Note: The ML model's higher estimate suggests a strong performance forecast for Shintaro Mochizuki, possibly due to key factors that the model accounted for.

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Matteo Arnaldi than the current prediction. (-7.1%)

Note: The ML model's lower estimate suggests a potential downturn for Matteo Arnaldi, possibly due to injuries or other negative factors.

Shintaro Mochizuki - Matteo Arnaldi Predictions

Expected Score (Market Odds): 0:2

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Preview

Mochizuki is in a very good shape now (in the last 5 games wins - 4).

Recent matches Arnaldi is playing unstable (in the last 5 games wins - 3).

Arnaldi could have advantage in physics - more days for rest in last days.

In this match Arnaldi is a favorite.

Recently, the players did not play each other.

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Shintaro Mochizuki
ATP Challenger
31.01.23	Matteo Gigante - Shintaro Mochizuki	1:2 ✺
30.01.23	Miguel Damas - Shintaro Mochizuki	0:2 ✺
29.01.23	Massimo Giunta - Shintaro Mochizuki	0:2 ✺
18.01.23	Shintaro Mochizuki - Tennys Sandgren	0:2 ✺
17.01.23	Paul Jubb - Shintaro Mochizuki	1:2 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 9.9 WWWLW
- Matteo Arnaldi
ATP Challenger
31.01.23	Alessandro Giannessi - Matteo Arnaldi	1:2 ✺
25.01.23	Sebastian Ofner - Matteo Arnaldi	2:1 ✺
ATP Australian Open
11.01.23	Max Purcell - Matteo Arnaldi	2:0 ✺
10.01.23	Alex Bolt - Matteo Arnaldi	1:2 ✺
08.01.23	Alexander Ritschard - Matteo Arnaldi	0:2 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 4.9 WLLWW

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