Match Info

ITF MEN - SINGLES: M15 Astana, hard - 1/8-finals

Date: 7 August 2025, Thursday


	Renta Tokuda		Mert Alkaya

	1	2
	1.36	2.97
	1.28	3.42	Watch
	1.29	3.5
			Watch
	1.44	2.59
Avarage Now (Initially)	1.34 ↓ (1.44)	3.12 ↑ (2.59)

The best margin for this event is 6.1%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Renta Tokuda
69.9%

Mert Alkaya
30.1%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

64.3%

35.7%

Our Initial ML Estimation

65.8%

34.2%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Renta Tokuda has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+5.6%)

Note: This is a significant improvement in prediction, suggesting increased confidence in Renta Tokuda's performance.

Mert Alkaya has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-5.6%)

Note: This is a significant drop in prediction, and Mert Alkaya might be facing challenges that affect their performance.

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Renta Tokuda than the current prediction. (-4.1%)

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Mert Alkaya than the current prediction. (+4.1%)

Renta Tokuda - Mert Alkaya Predictions

Expected Score (Market Odds): 2:0

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Preview

Tokuda is ranked ATP: 472. Alkaya is ranked ATP: 708.

Tokuda is showing really good form (last 5 games: 4 wins).

Alkaya has been playing with ups and downs recently (in the last 5 games, wins – 3).

Tokuda may face physical challenges compared to their opponent, as they have played more matches in recent days.

Tokuda is expected to have a slight advantage in this match.

Recently, there has been no match between the players.

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Renta Tokuda
ITF Tournaments
06.08.25	Renta Tokuda - Michal Krajci	2:0 ✺
ATP Challenger
29.07.25	Maximus Jones - Renta Tokuda	2:0 ✺
ITF Tournaments
12.07.25	Renta Tokuda - Shintaro Imai	2:0 ✺
11.07.25	Woobin Shin - Renta Tokuda	0:2 ✺
10.07.25	Jake Delaney - Renta Tokuda	0:2 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 6.7 WLWWW
- Mert Alkaya
ITF Tournaments
26.06.25	Mert Alkaya - Robin Bertrand	0:2 ✺
25.06.25	Aziz Ouakaa - Mert Alkaya	1:2 ✺
20.06.25	Fabrizio Andaloro - Mert Alkaya	2:0 ✺
19.06.25	Mert Alkaya - Petr Bar-Biryukov	2:1 ✺
17.06.25	Saveliy Ivanov - Mert Alkaya	0:2 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 6.7 LWLWW

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