Match Info

CHALLENGER MEN - SINGLES: BRAGA (PORTUGAL), CLAY - 1/16-FINALS

Date: 26 September 2023, Tuesday


	Riccardo Bonadio		Pablo Llamas Ruiz

	1	2
	2.5	1.5	Watch
	2.4	1.52	Watch
	2.46	1.57
	2.5	1.5	Watch
	2.57	1.46	Watch
	2.4	1.51
Avarage Now (Initially)	2.47 ↑ (2.09)	1.51 ↓ (1.67)

The best margin for this event is 4.3%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Riccardo Bonadio
37.9%

Pablo Llamas Ruiz
62.1%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

44.5%

55.5%

Our Initial ML Estimation

42.9%

57.1%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Riccardo Bonadio has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-6.6%)

Note: This is a significant drop in prediction, indicating that Riccardo Bonadio's form might have worsened.

Pablo Llamas Ruiz has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+6.6%)

Note: This is a significant improvement in prediction, suggesting Pablo Llamas Ruiz's recent form is better than expected.

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Riccardo Bonadio than the current prediction. (+5%)

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Pablo Llamas Ruiz than the current prediction. (-5%)

Who will win by Users?

1	X	2
18.2%	0%	81.8%

Riccardo Bonadio - Pablo Llamas Ruiz Predictions

Users Predictions: Pablo Llamas Ruiz will win (9 of 11 users predict this - 81.82%).
Confidence interval (95%): 59.03% – 100%.

Expected Score (Market Odds): 0:2

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Preview

Bonadio is in awful shape (in the last 5 games wins - 1).

Recent matches Llamas Ruiz is playing unstable (in the last 5 games wins - 3).

Bonadio could have problems with physics compare with it opponent - last days they played more matches than their opponents.

Llamas Ruiz will have a small advantage in this match.

Recently, the players did not play each other.

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Riccardo Bonadio
ATP Challenger
20.09.23	Riccardo Bonadio - Nerman Fatic	1:2 ✺
18.09.23	Steven Diez - Riccardo Bonadio	0:2 ✺
05.09.23	Riccardo Bonadio - Thiago Seyboth Wild	1:2 ✺
29.08.23	Sumit Nagal - Riccardo Bonadio	2:1 ✺
ATP US Open
22.08.23	Riccardo Bonadio - Giulio Zeppieri	1:2 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 2.3 LWLLL
- Pablo Llamas Ruiz
ATP Challenger
07.09.23	Pablo Llamas Ruiz - Calvin Hemery	1:2 ✺
06.09.23	Pablo Llamas Ruiz - Nikolas Sanchez Izquierdo	2:1 ✺
05.09.23	Pablo Llamas Ruiz - Federico Delbonis	2:0 ✺
ATP US Open
24.08.23	Pablo Llamas Ruiz - Dominic Stephan Stricker	1:2 ✺
22.08.23	Pablo Llamas Ruiz - Andrea Collarini	2:0 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 5.1 LWWLW

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