Match Info

ATP - SINGLES: Basel (Switzerland), hard (indoor) - 1/16-finals

Date: 21 October 2024, Monday


	Roberto Carballes Baena		Matteo Arnaldi

	1	2
	2.63	1.5	Watch
	2.45	1.53
	2.55	1.5
	2.57	1.56
	2.7	1.49	Watch
	2.38	1.57	Watch
	2.52	1.53	Watch
	2.55	1.5
Avarage Now (Initially)	2.54 ↑ (2.23)	1.52 ↓ (1.64)

The best margin for this event is 3%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Roberto Carballes Baena
37.4%

Matteo Arnaldi
62.6%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

42.4%

57.6%

Our Initial ML Estimation

46.4%

53.6%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Roberto Carballes Baena has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-5%)

Matteo Arnaldi has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+5%)

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Roberto Carballes Baena than the current prediction. (+9%)

Note: The ML model's higher estimate suggests a strong performance forecast for Roberto Carballes Baena, possibly due to key factors that the model accounted for.

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Matteo Arnaldi than the current prediction. (-9%)

Note: The ML model's lower estimate suggests a potential downturn for Matteo Arnaldi, possibly due to injuries or other negative factors.

Who will win by Users?

1	X	2
50%	0%	50%

Roberto Carballes Baena - Matteo Arnaldi Predictions

Users Predictions: 6 users predict this event. Carballes Baena will win (votes: 3 - 50%). Arnaldi will win (votes: 3 - 50%).

Expected Score (Market Odds): 0:2

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Preview

Carballes Baena is ranked ATP: 54. Arnaldi is ranked ATP: 36.

One and the other player get a very uncertain game.

Carballes Baena could have problems with physics compare with it opponent - last days they played more matches than their opponents.

Arnaldi will have a small advantage in this match.

Last 1 head-to-head matches Carballes Baena won 1 matches, drawn 0 matches, lost 0 matches and goals 3:1

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Roberto Carballes Baena
ATP Antwerp
16.10.24	Alex De Minaur - Roberto Carballes Baena	2:1 ✺
14.10.24	Dominik Koepfer - Roberto Carballes Baena	0:2 ✺
ATP Shanghai
08.10.24	Roberto Carballes Baena - Ben Shelton	0:2 ✺
04.10.24	Arthur Fils - Roberto Carballes Baena	0:2 ✺
02.10.24	Roberto Bautista-Agut - Roberto Carballes Baena	1:2 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 16.8 LWLWW
- Matteo Arnaldi
ATP Shanghai
06.10.24	Matteo Arnaldi - Daniil Medvedev	1:2 ✺
04.10.24	Matteo Arnaldi - Zachary Svajda	2:1 ✺
ATP Tokyo
25.09.24	Tommy Paul - Matteo Arnaldi	2:0 ✺
Davis Cup World Group
11.09.24	Matteo Arnaldi - Thiago Monteiro	2:1 ✺
ATP US Open
31.08.24	Matteo Arnaldi - Jordan Thompson	0:3 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 2.5 LWLWL

Latest Head to Head

ATP Wimbledon
06.07.23	Matteo Arnaldi - Roberto Carballes Baena	1:3

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