Match Info

ATP - SINGLES: Tokyo (Japan), hard - 1/16-finals

Date: 25 September 2024, Wednesday 🏁 Finished

Location: Tokyo (Japan) 🌤️ ... 🔵 Hard


	Tommy Paul		Matteo Arnaldi

	1	2
	1.3	3.5	Watch
	1.3	3.4	Watch
	1.31	3.4	Watch
	1.34	3.52
	1.32	3.52	Watch
	1.33	3.3	Watch
	1.33	3.37	Watch
	1.31	3.4
Avarage Now (Initially)	1.32 ↓ (1.45)	3.43 ↑ (2.75)

The best margin for this event is 3%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Tommy Paul
72.2%

Matteo Arnaldi
27.8%

Initial Probability (when we started the analysis)

65.5%

34.5%

Our Initial ML Estimation

67.3%

32.7%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Tommy Paul has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+6.7%)

Note: This is a significant improvement in prediction, suggesting increased confidence in Tommy Paul's performance.

Matteo Arnaldi has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-6.7%)

Note: This is a significant drop in prediction, and Matteo Arnaldi might be facing challenges that affect their performance.

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Tommy Paul than the current prediction. (-4.9%)

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Matteo Arnaldi than the current prediction. (+4.9%)

Who will win by Users?

1	X	2
72.7%	0%	27.3%

Tommy Paul - Matteo Arnaldi Predictions

Users Predictions: 10 users predict this event. Paul will win (votes: 7 - 70%). Arnaldi will win (votes: 3 - 30%).
Confidence interval (95%) for Paul: 41.6% – 98.4%.

Expected Score (Market Odds): 2:0

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Preview

Paul is ranked ATP: 13. Arnaldi is ranked ATP: 33.

Both players are now playing unstable.

Arnaldi could have problems with physics compare with it opponent - last days they played more matches than their opponents.

In this match Paul is a favorite.

Recently, the players did not play each other.

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Tommy Paul
ATP US Open
02.09.24	Jannik Sinner - Tommy Paul	3:0 ✺
31.08.24	Gabriel Diallo - Tommy Paul	1:3 ✺
29.08.24	Max Purcell - Tommy Paul	Purcell M. retired ✺
27.08.24	Lorenzo Sonego - Tommy Paul	1:3 ✺
ATP Cincinnati
12.08.24	Flavio Cobolli - Tommy Paul	2:1 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 2.3 LW?WL
- Matteo Arnaldi
Davis Cup World Group
11.09.24	Matteo Arnaldi - Thiago Monteiro	2:1 ✺
ATP US Open
31.08.24	Matteo Arnaldi - Jordan Thompson	0:3 ✺
29.08.24	Matteo Arnaldi - Roman Safiullin	3:0 ✺
27.08.24	Matteo Arnaldi - Zachary Svajda	3:0 ✺
ATP Cincinnati
14.08.24	Tomas Martin Etcheverry - Matteo Arnaldi	2:1 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 4.9 WLWWL

Upcoming Matches

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Tommy Paul
ATP Vienna
30.10.26	Tommy Paul - Carlos Alcaraz Garfia	✺

Tommy Paul - Matteo Arnaldi