Match Info

ATP - SINGLES: US Open (USA), hard - 1/16-finals

Date: 31 August 2024, Saturday

Location: USTA Billie Jean King NTC (New York, NY)


	Matteo Arnaldi		Jordan Thompson

	1	2
	1.91	1.91	Watch
	2	1.8
	1.96	1.85
	2	1.9
	1.97	1.91	Watch
	1.95	1.85
	2.04	1.78	Watch
	1.96	1.85
Avarage Now (Initially)	1.97 ↓ (2.06)	1.86 ↑ (1.7)

The best margin for this event is 2.6%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Matteo Arnaldi
48.5%

Jordan Thompson
51.5%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

45.2%

54.8%

Our Initial ML Estimation

45%

55%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Matteo Arnaldi has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+3.3%)

Jordan Thompson has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-3.3%)

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Matteo Arnaldi than the current prediction. (-3.5%)

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Jordan Thompson than the current prediction. (+3.5%)

Who will win by Users?

1	X	2
27.7%	0%	72.3%

Matteo Arnaldi - Jordan Thompson Predictions

Users Predictions: 46 users predict this event. Arnaldi will win (votes: 13 - 28.3%). Jordan Thompson will win (votes: 33 - 71.7%).
Confidence interval (95%) for Jordan Thompson: 58.7% – 84.7%.

Expected Score (Market Odds): 1:3

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Preview

Arnaldi is ranked ATP: 30. Jordan Thompson is ranked ATP: 32.

Recent matches Arnaldi is playing shaky (in the last 5 games wins - 3).

Jordan Thompson is in a very good shape now (in the last 5 games wins - 4).

In this match the chances to win of both players are almost equal.

Our prediction for today's Jordan Thompson to win the game is with odds 1.75.

Recently, the players did not play each other.

Last Results with these Odds

Jordan Thompson - the odds 1.7 are the expected chance of winning is 54.79%, but this team recently wins 71% of matches with these odds.

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Matteo Arnaldi
ATP US Open
29.08.24	Matteo Arnaldi - Roman Safiullin	3:0 ✺
27.08.24	Matteo Arnaldi - Zachary Svajda	3:0 ✺
ATP Cincinnati
14.08.24	Tomas Martin Etcheverry - Matteo Arnaldi	2:1 ✺
ATP Montreal
11.08.24	Andrey Rublev - Matteo Arnaldi	2:0 ✺
10.08.24	Matteo Arnaldi - Kei Nishikori	2:0 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 6.2 WWLLW
- Jordan Thompson Tennis
ATP US Open
29.08.24	Jordan Thompson - Hubert Hurkacz	3:0 ✺
27.08.24	Constant Lestienne - Jordan Thompson	0:3 ✺
ATP Cincinnati
16.08.24	Jannik Sinner - Jordan Thompson	Sinner J. walkover ✺
14.08.24	Sebastian Baez - Jordan Thompson	0:2 ✺
13.08.24	Jordan Thompson - Ugo Humbert	2:1 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 16.5 WW?WW

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