Match Info

ATP - SINGLES: Umag, clay - 1/16-finals

Date: 21 July 2025, Monday


	Roberto Carballes Baena		Nikoloz Basilashvili

	1	2
	2.1	1.73	Watch
	2	1.78
	2.08	1.72	Watch
	2.2	1.74
	2.01	1.78	Watch
	2	1.8	Watch
	2.11	1.73	Watch
	1.82	1.99
Avarage Now (Initially)	2.04 ↑ (1.75)	1.78 ↓ (1.92)

The best margin for this event is 2.9%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Roberto Carballes Baena
46.6%

Nikoloz Basilashvili
53.4%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

52.3%

47.7%

Our Initial ML Estimation

54.6%

45.4%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Roberto Carballes Baena has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-5.7%)

Note: This is a significant drop in prediction, indicating that Roberto Carballes Baena's form might have worsened.

Nikoloz Basilashvili has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+5.7%)

Note: This is a significant improvement in prediction, suggesting Nikoloz Basilashvili's recent form is better than expected.

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Roberto Carballes Baena than the current prediction. (+8%)

Note: The ML model's higher estimate suggests a strong performance forecast for Roberto Carballes Baena, possibly due to key factors that the model accounted for.

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Nikoloz Basilashvili than the current prediction. (-8%)

Note: The ML model's lower estimate suggests a potential downturn for Nikoloz Basilashvili, possibly due to injuries or other negative factors.

Who will win by Users?

1	X	2
50%	0%	50%

Roberto Carballes Baena - Nikoloz Basilashvili Predictions

Users Predictions: 8 users predict this event. Carballes Baena will win (votes: 4 - 50%). Basilashvili will win (votes: 4 - 50%).
Confidence interval (95%) for Carballes Baena: 15.4% – 84.6%.

Verified Performance Core (Selected Experts): 1 Selected Experts predict this event. Carballes Baena (votes: 1 - 100%).

Expected Score (Market Odds): 0:2

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Preview

Carballes Baena is ranked ATP: 79. Basilashvili is ranked ATP: 112.

Each of the players is struggling with stability in their game.

Basilashvili may have a physical advantage due to more rest days in recent times.

In this match, both players have almost equal chances to win.

In the last 3 head-to-head matches, Carballes Baena won 0 matches, drew 0 matches, lost 3 matches, and goals 1:6. (average 0.3:2).

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Roberto Carballes Baena
ATP Gstaad
17.07.25	Francisco Comesana - Roberto Carballes Baena	2:0 ✺
15.07.25	Roberto Carballes Baena - Carlos Taberner	2:1 ✺
ATP Challenger
10.07.25	Alex Molcan - Roberto Carballes Baena	Carballes Baena R. retired ✺
09.07.25	Christoph Negritu - Roberto Carballes Baena	1:2 ✺
08.07.25	Alex Barrena - Roberto Carballes Baena	0:2 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 5.9 LW?WW
- Nikoloz Basilashvili
ATP Gstaad
14.07.25	Arthur Cazaux - Nikoloz Basilashvili	2:1 ✺
ATP Challenger
09.07.25	Maxim Mrva - Nikoloz Basilashvili	2:1 ✺
ATP Wimbledon
03.07.25	Lorenzo Sonego - Nikoloz Basilashvili	3:1 ✺
01.07.25	Nikoloz Basilashvili - Lorenzo Musetti	3:1 ✺
26.06.25	Nikoloz Basilashvili - Juan Pablo Ficovich	3:1 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 10.4 LLLWW

Latest Head to Head

ATP Olympic Games
23.07.21	Nikoloz Basilashvili - Roberto Carballes Baena	2:0
ATP Antalya
24.06.18	Roberto Carballes Baena - Nikoloz Basilashvili	0:2
ATP Challenger
09.04.15	Nikoloz Basilashvili - Roberto Carballes Baena	2:1

Roberto Carballes Baena - Nikoloz Basilashvili: Predictions, Live Scores & TV Guide