Match Info

CHALLENGER MEN - SINGLES: Mexico City, clay - 1/16-finals

Date: 7 April 2026, Tuesday


	Rodrigo Pacheco Mendez		Mackenzie McDonald

	1	2
	1.83	1.83	Watch
	1.78	1.93	Watch
	1.88	1.99
	1.83	1.87	Watch
	1.91	1.8	Watch
	1.71	1.99	Watch
Avarage Now (Initially)	1.82 ↓ (2.2)	1.9 ↑ (1.61)

The best margin for this event is 3.4%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Rodrigo Pacheco Mendez
51.1%

Mackenzie McDonald
48.9%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

42.2%

57.8%

Our Initial ML Estimation

38%

62%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Rodrigo Pacheco Mendez has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+8.9%)

Note: This is a significant improvement in prediction, suggesting increased confidence in Rodrigo Pacheco Mendez's performance.

Mackenzie McDonald has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-8.9%)

Note: This is a significant drop in prediction, and Mackenzie McDonald might be facing challenges that affect their performance.

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Rodrigo Pacheco Mendez than the current prediction. (-13.1%)

Note: The ML model's lower estimate suggests that there may be underlying issues with Rodrigo Pacheco Mendez that the model has picked up on.

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Mackenzie McDonald than the current prediction. (+13.1%)

Note: The ML model's higher estimate suggests that Mackenzie McDonald could outperform expectations, possibly based on recent matchups or player stats.

Who will win by Users?

1	X	2
75%	0%	25%

Rodrigo Pacheco Mendez - Mackenzie McDonald Predictions

Users Predictions: 8 users predict this event. Pacheco Mendez will win (votes: 6 - 75%). McDonald will win (votes: 2 - 25%).
Confidence interval (95%) for Pacheco Mendez: 45% – 100%.

Verified Performance Core (Selected Experts): 1 Selected Experts predict this event. Pacheco Mendez (votes: 1 - 100%).

Over/Under & Asian Handicap Predictions by Selected Experts:

O/U 2.5 Sets - over (votes: 1 - 100%) .

Expected Score (Market Odds): 2:0

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Preview

Pacheco Mendez is ranked ATP: 280. McDonald is ranked ATP: 125.

The recent form of both competitors has been shaky.

McDonald may have a physical advantage due to more rest days in recent times.

McDonald will hold a modest advantage in this match.

Recently, the players have not faced each other.

Last Results with these Odds

Rodrigo Pacheco Mendez - the odds 2.2 are the expected chance of winning is 42.21%, but this team recently wins 17% of matches with these odds.

Mackenzie McDonald - the odds 1.61 are the expected chance of winning is 57.79%, but this team recently wins 70% of matches with these odds.

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Rodrigo Pacheco Mendez
ATP Challenger
04.04.26	James Duckworth - Rodrigo Pacheco Mendez	2:1 ✺
03.04.26	Juan Pablo Ficovich - Rodrigo Pacheco Mendez	1:2 ✺
02.04.26	Rodrigo Pacheco Mendez - Luka Pavlovic	2:1 ✺
31.03.26	Tibo Colson - Rodrigo Pacheco Mendez	0:2 ✺
26.03.26	Rodrigo Pacheco Mendez - Borna Gojo	0:2 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 7.3 LWWWL
- Mackenzie McDonald
ATP Houston
01.04.26	Thiago Augustin Tirante - Mackenzie McDonald	2:0 ✺
30.03.26	Mackenzie McDonald - Jenson Brooksby	2:0 ✺
ATP Miami
16.03.26	Martin Landaluce - Mackenzie McDonald	2:0 ✺
ATP Challenger
12.03.26	Miomir Kecmanovic - Mackenzie McDonald	2:0 ✺
11.03.26	Mackenzie McDonald - Martin Landaluce	2:1 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 8.3 LWLLW

Rodrigo Pacheco Mendez - Mackenzie McDonald: Predictions, Live Scores & TV Guide