Match Info

CHALLENGER MEN - SINGLES: Kingston - Qualification, hard - Semi-finals

Date: 16 August 2026, Sunday


	Roger Pascual Ferra		Mario Gonzalez Fernandez

	1	2
	1.28	3.20
	1.30	3.20
	1.31	3.47
	1.28	3.32	Watch
	1.29	3.40
	1.30	3.21
	1.30	3.30
Avarage Now (Initially)	1.29 ↓ (1.4)	3.3 ↑ (2.7)

The most likely Over/Under: 20.00

The best margin for this event is 5.2%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Roger Pascual Ferra
71.8%

Mario Gonzalez Fernandez
28.2%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

65.9%

34.1%

Our Initial ML Estimation

65.2%

34.8%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Roger Pascual Ferra has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+5.9%)

Note: This is a significant improvement in prediction, suggesting increased confidence in Roger Pascual Ferra's performance.

Mario Gonzalez Fernandez has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-5.9%)

Note: This is a significant drop in prediction, and Mario Gonzalez Fernandez might be facing challenges that affect their performance.

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Roger Pascual Ferra than the current prediction. (-6.6%)

Note: The ML model's lower estimate suggests that there may be underlying issues with Roger Pascual Ferra that the model has picked up on.

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Mario Gonzalez Fernandez than the current prediction. (+6.6%)

Note: The ML model's higher estimate suggests that Mario Gonzalez Fernandez could outperform expectations, possibly based on recent matchups or player stats.

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Preview

Pascual Ferra is ranked ATP: 682. Gonzalez Fernandez is ranked ATP: 589.

Both players are showing inconsistent performances lately.

Gonzalez Fernandez may face physical challenges compared to their opponent, as they have played more matches in recent days.

In this match, Pascual Ferra is seen as the favorite.

Recently, the players have not faced each other.

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Roger Pascual Ferra
ATP Challenger
02.08.26	Rodrigo Pacheco Mendez - Roger Pascual Ferra	2:0 ✺
ATP Los Cabos
26.07.26	Aidan Mayo - Roger Pascual Ferra	2:0 ✺
26.07.26	Roger Pascual Ferra - Colton Smith	2:1 ✺
ATP Challenger
23.07.26	Roger Pascual Ferra - Andres Martin	1:2 ✺
21.07.26	Roger Pascual Ferra - Masamichi Imamura	2:0 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 10.8 LLWLW
- Mario Gonzalez Fernandez
ITF Tournaments
06.08.26	Mario Gonzalez Fernandez - Aryan Shah	1:2 ✺
05.08.26	Mario Gonzalez Fernandez - Ander Tarrio Ponte	2:0 ✺
04.08.26	Mario Gonzalez Fernandez - Pavel Lagutin	Gonzalez Fernandez M. Walkover ✺
ATP Challenger
22.07.26	Mario Gonzalez Fernandez - Keegan Smith	0:2 ✺
20.07.26	Mario Gonzalez Fernandez - Miguel Tobon	2:1 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 9.5 LW?LW

Roger Pascual Ferra - Mario Gonzalez Fernandez: Predictions, Live Scores & TV Guide