Match Info

CHALLENGER MEN - SINGLES: Bratislava 2 (Slovakia), hard (indoor) - Quarter-finals

Date: 1 November 2024, Friday


	Roman Safiullin		Aslan Karatsev

	1	2
	1.4	2.75	Watch
	1.44	2.6
	1.41	2.7	Watch
	1.5	2.7
	1.49	2.64	Watch
	1.4	2.75	Watch
	1.42	2.73	Watch
	1.41	2.7
Avarage Now (Initially)	1.43 ↓ (1.64)	2.7 ↑ (2.12)

The best margin for this event is 3.7%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Roman Safiullin
65.3%

Aslan Karatsev
34.7%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

56.4%

43.6%

Our Initial ML Estimation

58.3%

41.7%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Roman Safiullin has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+8.9%)

Note: This is a significant improvement in prediction, suggesting increased confidence in Roman Safiullin's performance.

Aslan Karatsev has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-8.9%)

Note: This is a significant drop in prediction, and Aslan Karatsev might be facing challenges that affect their performance.

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Roman Safiullin than the current prediction. (-7%)

Note: The ML model's lower estimate suggests that there may be underlying issues with Roman Safiullin that the model has picked up on.

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Aslan Karatsev than the current prediction. (+7%)

Note: The ML model's higher estimate suggests that Aslan Karatsev could outperform expectations, possibly based on recent matchups or player stats.

Who will win by Users?

1	X	2
70%	0%	30%

Roman Safiullin - Aslan Karatsev Predictions

Users Predictions: 10 users predict this event. Safiullin will win (votes: 7 - 70%). Karatsev will win (votes: 3 - 30%).
Confidence interval (95%) for Safiullin: 41.6% – 98.4%.

Expected Score (Market Odds): 2:0

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Preview

Safiullin is ranked ATP: 59. Karatsev is ranked ATP: 313.

Recent matches Safiullin is playing unstable (in the last 5 games wins - 3).

Karatsev is in super good shape now (in the last 5 games wins - 4).

Karatsev could have advantage in physics - more days for rest in last days.

Safiullin will have a small advantage in this match.

Last 3 head-to-head matches Safiullin won 1 matches, drawn 0 matches, lost 2 matches and goals 2:2 (average 0.7:0.7).

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Roman Safiullin
ATP Challenger
31.10.24	Roman Safiullin - Marc-Andrea Huesler	2:0 ✺
29.10.24	Roman Safiullin - Milos Karol	2:0 ✺
ATP Almaty
15.10.24	Roman Safiullin - Adrian Mannarino	1:2 ✺
ATP Shanghai
09.10.24	Roman Safiullin - Novak Djokovic	0:2 ✺
08.10.24	Francis Tiafoe - Roman Safiullin	1:2 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 10.8 WWLLW
- Aslan Karatsev
ATP Challenger
31.10.24	Jozef Kovalik - Aslan Karatsev	0:2 ✺
28.10.24	Aslan Karatsev - Alexander Ritschard	2:1 ✺
ATP Almaty
16.10.24	Aslan Karatsev - Alexander Shevchenko	1:2 ✺
15.10.24	Zhizhen Zhang - Aslan Karatsev	0:2 ✺
14.10.24	Aslan Karatsev - Alejandro Moro Canas	2:0 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 9.4 WWLWW

Latest Head to Head

ATP Halle
18.06.23	Aslan Karatsev - Roman Safiullin	0:2
ATP Challenger
19.03.19	Aslan Karatsev - Roman Safiullin	2:0
21.01.19	Aslan Karatsev - Roman Safiullin	Safiullin R. retired

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