Match Info

CHALLENGER MEN - SINGLES: COLUMBUS (USA), HARD (INDOOR) - 1/16-FINALS

Date: 19 September 2023, Tuesday 🏁 Finished

Location: COLUMBUS (USA) 🌤️ ... 🔵 Indoor Hard


	Ryan Peniston		Bernard Tomic

	1	2
			Watch
	1.55	2.3
	1.61	2.38
	1.62	2.2
	1.5	2.46	Watch
	1.56	2.28
Avarage Now (Initially)	1.57 ↑ (1.4)	2.32 ↓ (2.73)

The best margin for this event is 4.1%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Ryan Peniston
59.7%

Bernard Tomic
40.3%

Initial Probability (when we started the analysis)

66.1%

33.9%

Our Initial ML Estimation

68.1%

31.9%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Ryan Peniston has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-6.4%)

Note: This is a significant drop in prediction, indicating that Ryan Peniston's form might have worsened.

Bernard Tomic has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+6.4%)

Note: This is a significant improvement in prediction, suggesting Bernard Tomic's recent form is better than expected.

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Ryan Peniston than the current prediction. (+8.4%)

Note: The ML model's higher estimate suggests a strong performance forecast for Ryan Peniston, possibly due to key factors that the model accounted for.

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Bernard Tomic than the current prediction. (-8.4%)

Note: The ML model's lower estimate suggests a potential downturn for Bernard Tomic, possibly due to injuries or other negative factors.

Who will win by Users?

1	X	2
66.7%	0%	33.3%

Ryan Peniston - Bernard Tomic Predictions

Users Predictions: 9 users predict this event. Peniston will win (votes: 6 - 66.7%). Tomic will win (votes: 3 - 33.3%).
Confidence interval (95%) for Peniston: 35.9% – 97.5%.

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Preview

Peniston is in a very good shape now (in the last 5 games wins - 4).

Recent matches Tomic is playing unstable (in the last 5 games wins - 3).

Peniston could have advantage in physics - more days for rest in last days.

Peniston will have a small advantage in this match.

Last 2 head-to-head matches Peniston won 0 matches, drawn 1 matches, lost 1 matches and goals 0-0.

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Ryan Peniston
ATP Challenger
12.09.23	Bernard Tomic - Ryan Peniston	Canceled ✺
19.08.23	Ryan Peniston - Leandro Riedi	2:1 ✺
18.08.23	Arthur Cazaux - Ryan Peniston	1:2 ✺
17.08.23	Darian King - Ryan Peniston	0:2 ✺
16.08.23	Ryan Peniston - Christian Harrison	2:0 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 13.5 ?WWWW
- Bernard Tomic
ATP Challenger
18.09.23	Bernard Tomic - Toby Samuel	2:0 ✺
17.09.23	Bernard Tomic - Calum Puttergill	2:0 ✺
14.09.23	Pedro Vives Marcos - Bernard Tomic	2:0 ✺
12.09.23	Bernard Tomic - Ryan Peniston	Canceled ✺
07.09.23	Nick Hardt - Bernard Tomic	2:1 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 6.5 WWL?L

Latest Head to Head

ATP Challenger
12.09.23	Bernard Tomic - Ryan Peniston	Canceled
12.06.19	Ryan Peniston - Bernard Tomic	Tomic B. retired

Ryan Peniston - Bernard Tomic