Match Info

CHALLENGER WOMEN - SINGLES: Manila, hard - 1/16-finals

Date: 27 January 2026, Tuesday


	Sara Saito		Mariia Tkacheva

	1	2
	1.4	2.75	Watch
	1.4	2.8
	1.38	3.11
	1.37	2.91	Watch
	1.44	2.63
	1.37	2.85	Watch
	1.4	2.8
Avarage Now (Initially)	1.39 ↓ (1.85)	2.84 ↑ (1.85)

The best margin for this event is 4.6%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Sara Saito
67%

Mariia Tkacheva
33%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

50%

Our Initial ML Estimation

49.2%

50.8%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Sara Saito has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+17%)

Note: This is a significant improvement in prediction, suggesting increased confidence in Sara Saito's performance.

Mariia Tkacheva has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-17%)

Note: This is a significant drop in prediction, and Mariia Tkacheva might be facing challenges that affect their performance.

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Sara Saito than the current prediction. (-17.8%)

Note: The ML model's lower estimate suggests that there may be underlying issues with Sara Saito that the model has picked up on.

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Mariia Tkacheva than the current prediction. (+17.8%)

Note: The ML model's higher estimate suggests that Mariia Tkacheva could outperform expectations, possibly based on recent matchups or player stats.

Who will win by Users?

1	X	2
100%	0%	0%

Sara Saito - Mariia Tkacheva Predictions

Over/Under & Asian Handicap Predictions by Selected Experts:

AH -4 Games - Saito (1.83) (votes: 2 - 100%) .

Users Predictions: Sara Saito will win (5 of 5 users predict this - 100%).
Confidence interval (95%): 100% – 100%.

Overall Expert Consensus (including all markets): 2 Selected Experts predict this event. Saito (votes: 2 - 100%).

Expected Score (Market Odds): 2:0

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Preview

Saito is ranked WTA: 262. Tkacheva is ranked WTA: 480.

Recent performances by Saito have been up and down (last 5 games: 3 wins).

Tkacheva has been struggling lately (in the last 5 games, wins – 1).

Tkacheva may have a physical advantage due to more rest days in recent times.

The chances of victory for both players are nearly identical in this match.

The players have not played against each other recently.

Last Results with these Odds

Sara Saito - the odds 1.85 are the expected chance of winning is 50.05%, but this team recently wins 38% of matches with these odds.

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Sara Saito
ITF Tournaments
15.01.26	Natsumi Kawaguchi - Sara Saito	2:1 ✺
14.01.26	Ikumi Yamazaki - Sara Saito	1:2 ✺
08.01.26	Sara Saito - Naiktha Bains	0:2 ✺
07.01.26	Sara Saito - Yidi Yang	Yang Y. retired ✺
05.01.26	Anastasia Tikhonova - Sara Saito	1:2 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 4.2 LWL?W
- Mariia Tkacheva
ITF Tournaments
23.12.25	Emma Van Poppel - Mariia Tkacheva	Tkacheva M. retired ✺
20.12.25	Sohyun Park - Mariia Tkacheva	2:1 ✺
06.12.25	Mariia Tkacheva - Katherine Sebov	1:2 ✺
05.12.25	Mariia Tkacheva - Alicia Dudeney	2:1 ✺
28.11.25	Kailey Evans - Mariia Tkacheva	2:0 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 4.6 ?LLWL

Sara Saito - Mariia Tkacheva: Predictions, Live Scores & TV Guide