Match Info

CHALLENGER MEN - SINGLES: Lille, hard - 1/16-finals

Date: 16 February 2026, Monday


	Sebastian Ofner		Hugo Gaston

	1	2
	2.63	1.44	Watch
			Watch
	2.45	1.47	Watch
	2.58	1.54
	2.55	1.45	Watch
	2.38	1.53
	2.5	1.47	Watch
	2.6	1.44
Avarage Now (Initially)	2.53 ↑ (1.83)	1.48 ↓ (1.83)

The best margin for this event is 3.7%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Sebastian Ofner
36.9%

Hugo Gaston
63.1%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

50%

Our Initial ML Estimation

52.1%

47.9%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Sebastian Ofner has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-13.1%)

Note: This is a significant drop in prediction, indicating that Sebastian Ofner's form might have worsened.

Hugo Gaston has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+13.1%)

Note: This is a significant improvement in prediction, suggesting Hugo Gaston's recent form is better than expected.

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Sebastian Ofner than the current prediction. (+15.2%)

Note: The ML model's higher estimate suggests a strong performance forecast for Sebastian Ofner, possibly due to key factors that the model accounted for.

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Hugo Gaston than the current prediction. (-15.2%)

Note: The ML model's lower estimate suggests a potential downturn for Hugo Gaston, possibly due to injuries or other negative factors.

Who will win by Users?

1	X	2
18.2%	0%	81.8%

Sebastian Ofner - Hugo Gaston Predictions

Verified Performance Core (Selected Experts): 3 Selected Experts predict this event. Ofner (votes: 2 - 66.7%). Gaston (votes: 1 - 33.3%).

Users Predictions: Hugo Gaston will win (9 of 11 users predict this - 81.82%).
Confidence interval (95%): 59.03% – 100%.

Expected Score (Market Odds): 0:2

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Preview

Ofner is ranked ATP: 135. Gaston is ranked ATP: 99.

Ofner is currently in poor form (last 5 games: 1 wins).

In recent matches, Gaston has shown inconsistent performance (in the last 5 games, wins – 3).

Ofner may face physical challenges compared to their opponent, as they have played more matches in recent days.

The chances of victory for both players are nearly identical in this match.

In the last 4 head-to-head matches, Ofner won 3 matches, drew 0 matches, lost 1 match, and goals 6:3. (average 1.5:0.8).

Last Results with these Odds

Sebastian Ofner - the odds 1.83 are the expected chance of winning is 50%, but this team recently wins 33% of matches with these odds.

Hugo Gaston - the odds 1.83 are the expected chance of winning is 50%, but this team recently wins 38% of matches with these odds.

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Sebastian Ofner
ATP Challenger
10.02.26	Marc-Andrea Huesler - Sebastian Ofner	2:1 ✺
Davis Cup World Group
07.02.26	Shintaro Mochizuki - Sebastian Ofner	Canceled ✺
06.02.26	Yosuke Watanuki - Sebastian Ofner	2:0 ✺
ATP Australian Open
13.01.26	Nishesh Basavareddy - Sebastian Ofner	2:1 ✺
11.01.26	August Holmgren - Sebastian Ofner	0:2 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 3.4 L?LLW
- Hugo Gaston
ATP Rotterdam
08.02.26	Hugo Gaston - Christopher OConnell	0:2 ✺
07.02.26	Hugo Gaston - Alec Deckers	2:1 ✺
ATP Australian Open
20.01.26	Hugo Gaston - Jannik Sinner	Gaston H. retired ✺
ATP Auckland
12.01.26	Cameron Norrie - Hugo Gaston	2:0 ✺
10.01.26	Vit Kopriva - Hugo Gaston	0:2 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 17.4 LW?LW

Latest Head to Head

ATP Madrid
23.04.25	Sebastian Ofner - Hugo Gaston	2:0
ATP Challenger
12.05.23	Sebastian Ofner - Hugo Gaston	2:1
08.09.21	Sebastian Ofner - Hugo Gaston	0:2
28.10.20	Sebastian Ofner - Hugo Gaston	2:0

Sebastian Ofner - Hugo Gaston: Predictions, Live Scores & TV Guide