Match Info

CHALLENGER MEN - SINGLES: Morelia (Mexico), hard - 1/16-finals

Date: 25 March 2025, Tuesday


	Shintaro Mochizuki		Bernard Tomic

	1	2
	1.5	2.5	Watch
	1.48	2.45
	1.5	2.43	Watch
	1.55	2.4	Watch
	1.57	2.25	Watch
	1.53	2.4	Watch
	1.5	2.43
Avarage Now (Initially)	1.52 ↓ (1.69)	2.41 ↑ (2.08)

The best margin for this event is 6.2%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Shintaro Mochizuki
61.3%

Bernard Tomic
38.7%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

55.3%

44.7%

Our Initial ML Estimation

55.2%

44.8%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Shintaro Mochizuki has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+6%)

Note: This is a significant improvement in prediction, suggesting increased confidence in Shintaro Mochizuki's performance.

Bernard Tomic has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-6%)

Note: This is a significant drop in prediction, and Bernard Tomic might be facing challenges that affect their performance.

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Shintaro Mochizuki than the current prediction. (-6.1%)

Note: The ML model's lower estimate suggests that there may be underlying issues with Shintaro Mochizuki that the model has picked up on.

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Bernard Tomic than the current prediction. (+6.1%)

Note: The ML model's higher estimate suggests that Bernard Tomic could outperform expectations, possibly based on recent matchups or player stats.

Who will win by Users?

1	X	2
83.3%	0%	16.7%

Shintaro Mochizuki - Bernard Tomic Predictions

Users Predictions: Shintaro Mochizuki will win (5 of 6 users predict this - 83.33%).
Confidence interval (95%): 53.51% – 100%.

Expected Score (Market Odds): 2:0

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Preview

Mochizuki is ranked ATP: 155. Tomic is ranked ATP: 219.

Two players are playing changeable.

Mochizuki could have advantage in physics - more days for rest in last days.

Mochizuki will have a mini benefit in this match.

Recently, the players did not play each other.

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Shintaro Mochizuki
ATP Miami
18.03.25	Francisco Comesana - Shintaro Mochizuki	2:0 ✺
17.03.25	Shintaro Mochizuki - Yannick Hanfmann	2:0 ✺
ATP Challenger
02.03.25	Shintaro Mochizuki - Brandon Holt	0:2 ✺
01.03.25	Shintaro Mochizuki - James McCabe	2:1 ✺
28.02.25	Hynek Barton - Shintaro Mochizuki	0:2 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 8.2 LWLWW
- Bernard Tomic
ATP Challenger
19.03.25	Renzo Olivo - Bernard Tomic	2:1 ✺
18.03.25	Elmar Ejupovic - Bernard Tomic	0:2 ✺
04.03.25	Bernard Tomic - Nicholas David Ionel	0:2 ✺
27.02.25	Bernard Tomic - Brandon Holt	1:2 ✺
25.02.25	Ilia Simakin - Bernard Tomic	1:2 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 4.7 LWLLW

Shintaro Mochizuki - Bernard Tomic: Predictions, Live Scores & TV Guide