Match Info

ITF MEN - SINGLES: M15 Madrid 4, clay - Final

Date: 7 December 2025, Sunday


	Stefan Palosi		Max Alcala Gurri

	1	2
	2.68	1.39
	2.75	1.43
	2.71	1.39	Watch
	2.4	1.4
	2.66	1.42	Watch
Avarage Now (Initially)	2.64 ↓ (2.71)	1.41 ↑ (1.39)

The best margin for this event is 6.3%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Stefan Palosi
34.8%

Max Alcala Gurri
65.2%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

33.9%

66.1%

Our Initial ML Estimation

28%

72%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Stefan Palosi has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+0.9%)

Max Alcala Gurri has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-0.9%)

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Stefan Palosi than the current prediction. (-6.8%)

Note: The ML model's lower estimate suggests that there may be underlying issues with Stefan Palosi that the model has picked up on.

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Max Alcala Gurri than the current prediction. (+6.8%)

Note: The ML model's higher estimate suggests that Max Alcala Gurri could outperform expectations, possibly based on recent matchups or player stats.

Who will win by Users?

1	X	2
0%	0%	100%

Stefan Palosi - Max Alcala Gurri Predictions

Users Predictions: 1 users predict this event. Alcala Gurri will win (votes: 1 - 100%).

Expected Score (Market Odds): 0:2

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Preview

Palosi is ranked ATP: 528. Alcala Gurri is ranked ATP: 422.

Currently, both players are in excellent shape.

Palosi may face physical challenges compared to their opponent, as they have played more matches in recent days.

Alcala Gurri could have a small edge in this match.

We predict that Alcala Gurri will win today's game, with odds of 1.39.

In the last 1 head-to-head match, Palosi won 1 match, drew 0 matches, lost 0 matches, and goals 2:1.

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Stefan Palosi
ITF Tournaments
06.12.25	Tiago Torres - Stefan Palosi	0:2 ✺
05.12.25	Stefan Palosi - Diego Fernandez Flores	2:1 ✺
04.12.25	Stefan Palosi - Carles Cordoba	2:0 ✺
03.12.25	Stefan Palosi - Theodor Matei Ene	2:0 ✺
ATP Challenger
24.11.25	Andres Santamarta Roig - Stefan Palosi	2:1 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 6 WWWWL
- Max Alcala Gurri
ITF Tournaments
06.12.25	Carlos Lopez Montagud - Max Alcala Gurri	0:2 ✺
05.12.25	Mario Gonzalez Fernandez - Max Alcala Gurri	0:2 ✺
04.12.25	Luka Talan Lopatic - Max Alcala Gurri	0:2 ✺
03.12.25	Ignacio Parisca - Max Alcala Gurri	1:2 ✺
ATP Challenger
19.11.25	Max Alcala Gurri - Elmer Moller	0:2 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 6.1 WWWWL

Latest Head to Head

ITF Tournaments
16.03.22	Max Alcala Gurri - Stefan Palosi	1:2

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