Match Info

CHALLENGER MEN - SINGLES: Zadar, clay - 1/16-finals

Date: 17 March 2026, Tuesday


	Stefano Travaglia		Mili Poljicak

	1	2
	1.62	2.2	Watch
	1.57	2.25
	1.64	2.13
	1.79	2.1
	1.68	2.06	Watch
	1.73	2	Watch
	1.66	2.1	Watch
Avarage Now (Initially)	1.67 ↓ (2.34)	2.12 ↑ (1.54)

The best margin for this event is 3.5%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Stefano Travaglia
55.9%

Mili Poljicak
44.1%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

39.7%

60.3%

Our Initial ML Estimation

44.4%

55.6%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Stefano Travaglia has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+16.2%)

Note: This is a significant improvement in prediction, suggesting increased confidence in Stefano Travaglia's performance.

Mili Poljicak has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-16.2%)

Note: This is a significant drop in prediction, and Mili Poljicak might be facing challenges that affect their performance.

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Stefano Travaglia than the current prediction. (-11.5%)

Note: The ML model's lower estimate suggests that there may be underlying issues with Stefano Travaglia that the model has picked up on.

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Mili Poljicak than the current prediction. (+11.5%)

Note: The ML model's higher estimate suggests that Mili Poljicak could outperform expectations, possibly based on recent matchups or player stats.

Who will win by Users?

1	X	2
97.2%	0%	2.8%

Stefano Travaglia - Mili Poljicak Predictions

Users Predictions: 36 users predict this event. Travaglia will win (votes: 35 - 97.2%). Poljicak will win (votes: 1 - 2.8%).
Confidence interval (95%) for Travaglia: 91.8% – 100%.

Verified Performance Core (Selected Experts): Stefano Travaglia will win (8 of 8 users predict this - 100%) 🥇 Gold Tip.

Expected Score (Market Odds): 2:0

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Preview

Travaglia is ranked ATP: 166. Poljicak is ranked ATP: 388.

In recent matches, Travaglia has shown inconsistent form (last 5 games: 2 wins).

Poljicak is in superb shape, having picked up a string of victories recently (last 5 games: 5 wins).

Travaglia may have a physical advantage due to more rest days in recent times.

The chances of victory for both players are nearly identical in this match.

In the last 2 head-to-head matches, Travaglia won 1 match, drew 0 matches, lost 1 match, and goals 3:3. (average 1.5:1.5).

Last Results with these Odds

Stefano Travaglia - the odds 2.34 are the expected chance of winning is 39.66%, but this team recently wins 50% of matches with these odds.

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Stefano Travaglia
ATP Challenger
11.03.26	Stefano Travaglia - Quentin Halys	1:2 ✺
10.03.26	Stefano Travaglia - Aidan Mayo	2:1 ✺
09.03.26	Stefano Travaglia - Ofek Shimanov	2:0 ✺
ATP Indian Wells
02.03.26	Aleksandar Vukic - Stefano Travaglia	2:0 ✺
ATP Challenger
13.02.26	Stefano Travaglia - Alejandro Moro Canas	0:2 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 2.4 LWWLL
- Mili Poljicak
ITF Tournaments
15.03.26	Tommaso Compagnucci - Mili Poljicak	0:2 ✺
14.03.26	Mili Poljicak - Viacheslav Bielinskyi	2:1 ✺
13.03.26	Maxime Chazal - Mili Poljicak	0:2 ✺
12.03.26	Josip Simundza - Mili Poljicak	0:2 ✺
11.03.26	Emanuel Ivanisevic - Mili Poljicak	0:2 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 9.4 WWWWW

Latest Head to Head

ATP Challenger
24.06.25	Mili Poljicak - Stefano Travaglia	2:1
06.09.24	Stefano Travaglia - Mili Poljicak	2:1

Stefano Travaglia - Mili Poljicak: Predictions, Live Scores & TV Guide