Match Info

ITF MEN - SINGLES: M25 Fano, clay - 1/16-finals

Date: 3 August 2026, Monday


	Tobia Costanzo Baragiola Mordini		Marcello Serafini

	1	2
			Watch
	3.40	1.25
	3.60	1.25
	3.82	1.27
	3.35	1.27	Watch
	3.75	1.25
	3.41	1.27	Watch
Avarage Now (Initially)	3.56 ↑ (2.43)	1.26 ↓ (1.49)

The most likely Over/Under: 20.50

The best margin for this event is 4.9%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Tobia Costanzo Baragiola Mordini
26.2%

Marcello Serafini
73.8%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

38%

62%

Our Initial ML Estimation

37.9%

62.1%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Tobia Costanzo Baragiola Mordini has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-11.8%)

Note: This is a significant drop in prediction, indicating that Tobia Costanzo Baragiola Mordini's form might have worsened.

Marcello Serafini has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+11.8%)

Note: This is a significant improvement in prediction, suggesting Marcello Serafini's recent form is better than expected.

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Tobia Costanzo Baragiola Mordini than the current prediction. (+11.7%)

Note: The ML model's higher estimate suggests a strong performance forecast for Tobia Costanzo Baragiola Mordini, possibly due to key factors that the model accounted for.

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Marcello Serafini than the current prediction. (-11.7%)

Note: The ML model's lower estimate suggests a potential downturn for Marcello Serafini, possibly due to injuries or other negative factors.

Tobia Costanzo Baragiola Mordini - Marcello Serafini Predictions

Expected Score (Market Odds): 0:2

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Preview

Baragiola Mordini is ranked ATP: 1182. Serafini is ranked ATP: 1160.

Baragiola Mordini has been struggling lately (last 5 games: 1 wins).

Serafini has been unpredictable lately (in the last 5 games, wins – 2).

Serafini may face physical challenges compared to their opponent, as they have played more matches in recent days.

Serafini will hold a modest advantage in this match.

The players have not played against each other recently.

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Tobia Costanzo Baragiola Mordini
ITF Tournaments
29.07.26	Tobia Costanzo Baragiola Mordini - Matthias Ujvary	0:2 ✺
22.07.26	Juan Cruz Martin Manzano - Tobia Costanzo Baragiola Mordini	2:1 ✺
09.07.26	Tobia Costanzo Baragiola Mordini - Petros Tsitsipas	1:2 ✺
07.07.26	Szymon Podczaszy - Tobia Costanzo Baragiola Mordini	0:2 ✺
ATP Challenger
14.06.26	Tommaso Compagnucci - Tobia Costanzo Baragiola Mordini	2:0 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 1.1 LLLWL
- Marcello Serafini
ITF Tournaments
30.07.26	Marcello Serafini - John Hallquist Lithen	1:2 ✺
29.07.26	Marcello Serafini - Alexander Gschiel	2:1 ✺
16.07.26	Marcello Serafini - Pierluigi Basile	1:2 ✺
14.07.26	Marcello Serafini - Gian Marco Ortenzi	2:1 ✺
08.07.26	Marcello Serafini - Leonardo Rossi	0:2 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 4.2 LWLWL

Tobia Costanzo Baragiola Mordini - Marcello Serafini: Predictions, Live Scores & TV Guide