Match Info

CHALLENGER MEN - SINGLES: Shymkent, clay - 1/16-finals

Date: 20 April 2026, Monday


	Tomasz Berkieta		Jelle Sels

	1	2
	1.69	2.04
	1.84	2.04
	1.7	2.02	Watch
	1.73	2
	1.71	1.99	Watch
Avarage Now (Initially)	1.73 ↑ (1.57)	2.02 ↓ (2.26)

The best margin for this event is 3.4%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Tomasz Berkieta
53.8%

Jelle Sels
46.2%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

59.1%

40.9%

Our Initial ML Estimation

51.8%

48.2%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Tomasz Berkieta has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-5.3%)

Note: This is a significant drop in prediction, indicating that Tomasz Berkieta's form might have worsened.

Jelle Sels has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+5.3%)

Note: This is a significant improvement in prediction, suggesting Jelle Sels's recent form is better than expected.

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Tomasz Berkieta than the current prediction. (-2%)

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Jelle Sels than the current prediction. (+2%)

Who will win by Users?

1	X	2
66.7%	0%	33.3%

Tomasz Berkieta - Jelle Sels Predictions

Users Predictions: 3 users predict this event. Berkieta will win (votes: 2 - 66.7%). Sels will win (votes: 1 - 33.3%).

Expected Score (Market Odds): 2:0

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Preview

Berkieta is ranked ATP: 483. Sels is ranked ATP: 450.

Recent performances by Berkieta have been up and down (last 5 games: 2 wins).

Sels is currently in poor form (in the last 5 games, wins – 1).

Berkieta may have a physical advantage due to more rest days in recent times.

Berkieta could have a small edge in this match.

In the last 2 head-to-head matches, Berkieta won 1 match, drew 0 matches, lost 1 match, and goals 0:2. (average 0:1).

Last Results with these Odds

Jelle Sels - the odds 2.26 are the expected chance of winning is 40.92%, but this team recently wins 50% of matches with these odds.

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Tomasz Berkieta
ATP Challenger
05.04.26	Tomasz Berkieta - Fabrizio Andaloro	1:2 ✺
ITF Tournaments
11.03.26	Tomasz Berkieta - Amit Vales	0:2 ✺
08.03.26	Tomasz Berkieta - Lorenzo Angelini	0:2 ✺
07.03.26	Tomasz Berkieta - Matt Kuhar	2:1 ✺
06.03.26	Tomasz Berkieta - Dimitris Sakellaridis	2:1 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 2.6 LLLWW
- Jelle Sels
ITF Tournaments
08.04.26	Max Schoenhaus - Jelle Sels	2:0 ✺
06.04.26	Giovanni Fonio - Jelle Sels	1:2 ✺
ATP Challenger
23.03.26	Andrej Nedic - Jelle Sels	2:0 ✺
16.03.26	Jelle Sels - Kyrian Jacquet	1:2 ✺
09.03.26	Jelle Sels - Geoffrey Blancaneaux	0:2 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 3.3 LWLLL

Latest Head to Head

ATP Challenger
25.11.25	Tomasz Berkieta - Jelle Sels	Canceled
21.04.24	Tomasz Berkieta - Jelle Sels	0:2

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