Match Info

ITF MEN - SINGLES: M25 Santa Margherita di Pula 8, clay - Semi-finals

Date: 27 September 2025, Saturday


	Tommaso Compagnucci		Daniel Michalski

	1	2
			Watch
	2.78	1.42
	2.71	1.39	Watch
	2.73	1.41	Watch
Avarage Now (Initially)	2.74 ↑ (2.25)	1.41 ↓ (1.54)

The best margin for this event is 6.4%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Tommaso Compagnucci
33.9%

Daniel Michalski
66.1%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

40.6%

59.4%

Our Initial ML Estimation

39.7%

60.3%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Tommaso Compagnucci has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-6.7%)

Note: This is a significant drop in prediction, indicating that Tommaso Compagnucci's form might have worsened.

Daniel Michalski has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+6.7%)

Note: This is a significant improvement in prediction, suggesting Daniel Michalski's recent form is better than expected.

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Tommaso Compagnucci than the current prediction. (+5.8%)

Note: The ML model's higher estimate suggests a strong performance forecast for Tommaso Compagnucci, possibly due to key factors that the model accounted for.

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Daniel Michalski than the current prediction. (-5.8%)

Note: The ML model's lower estimate suggests a potential downturn for Daniel Michalski, possibly due to injuries or other negative factors.

Tommaso Compagnucci - Daniel Michalski Predictions

Over/Under & Asian Handicap Predictions by Selected Experts:

AH +1.5 Sets - Compagnucci (1.70) (votes: 1 - 100%) .

Overall Expert Consensus (including all markets): 1 Selected Experts predict this event. Compagnucci (votes: 1 - 100%).

Expected Score (Market Odds): 0:2

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Preview

Compagnucci is ranked ATP: 499. Michalski is ranked ATP: 295.

Compagnucci is undoubtedly in great shape (last 5 games: 4 wins).

Michalski's form has been unstable in recent games (in the last 5 games, wins – 3).

Michalski may have a physical advantage due to more rest days in recent times.

Michalski will hold a modest advantage in this match.

In the last 3 head-to-head matches, Compagnucci won 3 matches, drew 0 matches, lost 0 matches, and goals 6:3. (average 2:1).

Last Results with these Odds

Tommaso Compagnucci - the odds 2.25 are the expected chance of winning is 40.63%, but this team recently wins 50% of matches with these odds.

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Tommaso Compagnucci
ITF Tournaments
26.09.25	Tommaso Compagnucci - Giovanni Oradini	Oradini G. retired ✺
25.09.25	Tommaso Compagnucci - Filippo Romano	2:0 ✺
24.09.25	Tommaso Compagnucci - Andrea de Marchi	2:1 ✺
ATP Challenger
16.09.25	Tommaso Compagnucci - Daniel Uta	1:2 ✺
15.09.25	Tommaso Compagnucci - Stefan Palosi	2:0 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 8.2 ?WWLW
- Daniel Michalski
ITF Tournaments
26.09.25	Michele Ribecai - Daniel Michalski	1:2 ✺
25.09.25	Giorgio Tabacco - Daniel Michalski	0:2 ✺
22.09.25	Alex Lapsansky - Daniel Michalski	0:2 ✺
ATP Challenger
09.09.25	Vit Kopriva - Daniel Michalski	2:0 ✺
02.09.25	Federico Bondioli - Daniel Michalski	2:0 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 4.7 WWWLL

Latest Head to Head

ITF Tournaments
05.04.24	Daniel Michalski - Tommaso Compagnucci	1:2
27.09.23	Tommaso Compagnucci - Daniel Michalski	2:1
21.07.22	Tommaso Compagnucci - Daniel Michalski	2:1

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