Match Info

CHALLENGER MEN - SINGLES: Genova, clay - 1/16-finals

Date: 2 September 2025, Tuesday


	Federico Bondioli		Daniel Michalski

	1	2
	2.25	1.57	Watch
	2.15	1.62	Watch
	2.2	1.6	Watch
	2.27	1.65
	2.19	1.65	Watch
	2.2	1.62	Watch
	2.21	1.62	Watch
	2.22	1.56
Avarage Now (Initially)	2.21 ↓ (2.22)	1.61 ↑ (1.56)

The best margin for this event is 4.7%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Federico Bondioli
42.2%

Daniel Michalski
57.8%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

41.3%

58.7%

Our Initial ML Estimation

34.8%

65.2%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Federico Bondioli has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+0.9%)

Daniel Michalski has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-0.9%)

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Federico Bondioli than the current prediction. (-7.4%)

Note: The ML model's lower estimate suggests that there may be underlying issues with Federico Bondioli that the model has picked up on.

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Daniel Michalski than the current prediction. (+7.4%)

Note: The ML model's higher estimate suggests that Daniel Michalski could outperform expectations, possibly based on recent matchups or player stats.

Who will win by Users?

1	X	2
50%	0%	50%

Federico Bondioli - Daniel Michalski Predictions

Users Predictions: 4 users predict this event. Bondioli will win (votes: 2 - 50%). Michalski will win (votes: 2 - 50%).

Expected Score (Market Odds): 0:2

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Preview

Bondioli is ranked ATP: 416. Michalski is ranked ATP: 277.

Bondioli has been struggling lately (last 5 games: 1 wins).

Michalski's form has been unstable in recent games (in the last 5 games, wins – 2).

Bondioli may face physical challenges compared to their opponent, as they have played more matches in recent days.

In this match, both players have almost equal chances to win.

Recently, there has been no match between the players.

Last Results with these Odds

Federico Bondioli - the odds 2.22 are the expected chance of winning is 41.27%, but this team recently wins 13% of matches with these odds.

Daniel Michalski - the odds 1.56 are the expected chance of winning is 58.73%, but this team recently wins 50% of matches with these odds.

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Federico Bondioli
ATP Challenger
01.09.25	Tom Gentzsch - Federico Bondioli	2:0 ✺
31.08.25	Daniel Cukierman - Federico Bondioli	0:2 ✺
26.08.25	Federico Bondioli - Giovanni Fonio	1:2 ✺
19.08.25	Federico Bondioli - Milos Karol	1:2 ✺
18.08.25	Federico Bondioli - Franco Agamenone	0:2 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 1.3 LWLLL
- Daniel Michalski
ATP Challenger
29.08.25	Daniel Michalski - Guy Den Ouden	1:2 ✺
28.08.25	Dimitar Kuzmanov - Daniel Michalski	1:2 ✺
26.08.25	Daniel Michalski - Carlos Sanchez Jover	2:0 ✺
18.08.25	Alexander Donski - Daniel Michalski	2:0 ✺
02.08.25	Daniel Michalski - Genaro Alberto Olivieri	0:2 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 5.5 LWWLL

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