Match Info

CHALLENGER WOMEN - SINGLES: Quito, clay - 1/16-finals

Date: 2 December 2025, Tuesday


	Varvara Lepchenko		Carolina Alves

	1	2
	1.17	4.5	Watch
	1.22	3.85	Watch
	1.19	4.22
	1.22	3.94	Watch
	1.22	4
	1.19	4.15	Watch
	1.28	3.4
Avarage Now (Initially)	1.21 ↓ (1.39)	4.01 ↑ (2.78)

The best margin for this event is 7%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Varvara Lepchenko
76.8%

Carolina Alves
23.2%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

66.6%

33.4%

Our Initial ML Estimation

70.7%

29.3%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Varvara Lepchenko has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+10.2%)

Note: This is a significant improvement in prediction, suggesting increased confidence in Varvara Lepchenko's performance.

Carolina Alves has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-10.2%)

Note: This is a significant drop in prediction, and Carolina Alves might be facing challenges that affect their performance.

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Varvara Lepchenko than the current prediction. (-6.1%)

Note: The ML model's lower estimate suggests that there may be underlying issues with Varvara Lepchenko that the model has picked up on.

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Carolina Alves than the current prediction. (+6.1%)

Note: The ML model's higher estimate suggests that Carolina Alves could outperform expectations, possibly based on recent matchups or player stats.

Varvara Lepchenko - Carolina Alves Predictions

Verified Performance Core (Selected Experts): 2 Selected Experts predict this event. Alves (votes: 2 - 100%).

Over/Under & Asian Handicap Predictions by Selected Experts:

AH +1.5 Sets - Alves (2.33) (votes: 1 - 100%) .

AH +1.5 Sets - Lepchenko (1.09) (votes: 1 - 100%) .

Overall Expert Consensus (including all markets): 4 Selected Experts predict this event. Lepchenko (votes: 1 - 25%). Alves (votes: 3 - 75%).

Expected Score (Market Odds): 2:0

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Preview

Lepchenko is ranked WTA: 142. Alves is ranked WTA: 236.

Lepchenko is in very good shape right now (last 5 games: 4 wins).

Alves has been struggling lately (in the last 5 games, wins – 1).

Alves may have a physical advantage due to more rest days in recent times.

In this match, Lepchenko is considered a favorite.

Recently, the players have not faced each other.

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Varvara Lepchenko
ATP Challenger
30.11.25	Varvara Lepchenko - Panna Udvardy	0:2 ✺
29.11.25	Mayar Sherif - Varvara Lepchenko	0:2 ✺
28.11.25	Lucciana Perez Alarcon - Varvara Lepchenko	0:2 ✺
26.11.25	Varvara Lepchenko - Maja Chwalinska	2:1 ✺
25.11.25	Varvara Lepchenko - Laura Pigossi	2:0 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 15.9 LWWWW
- Carolina Alves
ATP Challenger
24.11.25	Carolina Alves - Panna Udvardy	0:2 ✺
19.11.25	Carolina Alves - Carole Monnet	0:2 ✺
17.11.25	Carolina Alves - Jessica Pieri	2:0 ✺
21.10.25	Solana Sierra - Carolina Alves	2:0 ✺
16.10.25	Carolina Alves - Sinja Kraus	0:2 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 2.8 LLWLL

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