Match Info

CHALLENGER WOMEN - SINGLES: Quito, clay - 1/8-finals

Date: 3 December 2025, Wednesday


	Varvara Lepchenko		Elvina Kalieva

	1	2
	1.73	2	Watch
	1.76	1.95	Watch
	1.8	1.9
	1.77	1.96	Watch
	1.73	2
	1.83	1.85	Watch
	1.78	1.96
Avarage Now (Initially)	1.77 ↑ (1.56)	1.95 ↓ (2.26)

The best margin for this event is 7.2%, offered by

#Advertisement. For Live Stream GEO restrictions apply. Funded account required. GamblingTherapy.org. 18+

Current Win Probability

Varvara Lepchenko
52.3%

Elvina Kalieva
47.7%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

59.2%

40.8%

Our Initial ML Estimation

60.2%

39.8%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Varvara Lepchenko has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-6.9%)

Note: This is a significant drop in prediction, indicating that Varvara Lepchenko's form might have worsened.

Elvina Kalieva has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+6.9%)

Note: This is a significant improvement in prediction, suggesting Elvina Kalieva's recent form is better than expected.

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Varvara Lepchenko than the current prediction. (+7.9%)

Note: The ML model's higher estimate suggests a strong performance forecast for Varvara Lepchenko, possibly due to key factors that the model accounted for.

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Elvina Kalieva than the current prediction. (-7.9%)

Note: The ML model's lower estimate suggests a potential downturn for Elvina Kalieva, possibly due to injuries or other negative factors.

Who will win by Users?

1	X	2
40%	0%	60%

Varvara Lepchenko - Elvina Kalieva Predictions

Users Predictions: 4 users predict this event. Lepchenko will win (votes: 2 - 50%). Kalieva will win (votes: 2 - 50%).

Verified Performance Core (Selected Experts): 2 Selected Experts predict this event. Kalieva (votes: 2 - 100%).

Expected Score (Market Odds): 2:0

#ad

Preview

Lepchenko is ranked WTA: 142. Kalieva is ranked WTA: 206.

Lepchenko is in very good shape right now (last 5 games: 4 wins).

In recent matches, Kalieva has shown inconsistent performance (in the last 5 games, wins – 3).

Lepchenko may face physical challenges compared to their opponent, as they have played more matches in recent days.

Lepchenko will hold a modest advantage in this match.

In the last 2 head-to-head matches, Lepchenko won 0 matches, drew 0 matches, lost 2 matches, and goals 1:4. (average 0.5:2).

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Varvara Lepchenko
ATP Challenger
02.12.25	Varvara Lepchenko - Carolina Alves	2:1 ✺
30.11.25	Varvara Lepchenko - Panna Udvardy	0:2 ✺
29.11.25	Mayar Sherif - Varvara Lepchenko	0:2 ✺
28.11.25	Lucciana Perez Alarcon - Varvara Lepchenko	0:2 ✺
26.11.25	Varvara Lepchenko - Maja Chwalinska	2:1 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 14.7 WLWWW
- Elvina Kalieva
ATP Challenger
01.12.25	Elvina Kalieva - Miriam Bianca Bulgaru	2:0 ✺
ITF Tournaments
19.11.25	Elvina Kalieva - Dalayna Hewitt	0:2 ✺
18.11.25	Elvina Kalieva - Romina Dominguez Garcia	2:0 ✺
02.11.25	Elvina Kalieva - Marina Stakusic	0:2 ✺
01.11.25	Elvina Kalieva - Elizabeth Mandlik	2:0 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 11.3 WLWLW

Latest Head to Head

ATP Challenger
13.10.25	Varvara Lepchenko - Elvina Kalieva	0:2
10.06.24	Elvina Kalieva - Varvara Lepchenko	2:1

Upcoming Matches