Match Info

CHALLENGER MEN - SINGLES: Lisbon, clay - 1/16-finals

Date: 22 September 2025, Monday


	Vilius Gaubas		Carlos Taberner

	1	2
	2.25	1.57	Watch
			Watch
	2.19	1.6	Watch
	2.27	1.66
	2.05	1.67	Watch
	2.16	1.65	Watch
Avarage Now (Initially)	2.18 ↓ (2.63)	1.63 ↑ (1.44)

The best margin for this event is 4.3%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Vilius Gaubas
42.7%

Carlos Taberner
57.3%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

35.4%

64.6%

Our Initial ML Estimation

36.5%

63.5%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Vilius Gaubas has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+7.3%)

Note: This is a significant improvement in prediction, suggesting increased confidence in Vilius Gaubas's performance.

Carlos Taberner has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-7.3%)

Note: This is a significant drop in prediction, and Carlos Taberner might be facing challenges that affect their performance.

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Vilius Gaubas than the current prediction. (-6.2%)

Note: The ML model's lower estimate suggests that there may be underlying issues with Vilius Gaubas that the model has picked up on.

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Carlos Taberner than the current prediction. (+6.2%)

Note: The ML model's higher estimate suggests that Carlos Taberner could outperform expectations, possibly based on recent matchups or player stats.

Vilius Gaubas - Carlos Taberner Predictions

Expected Score (Market Odds): 0:2

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Preview

Gaubas is ranked ATP: 161. Taberner is ranked ATP: 104.

In recent matches, Gaubas has shown inconsistent form (last 5 games: 3 wins).

Taberner's performance has dropped in recent matches (in the last 5 games, wins – 1).

Taberner may have a physical advantage due to more rest days in recent times.

Taberner could have a small edge in this match.

In the last 2 head-to-head matches, Gaubas won 1 match, drew 0 matches, lost 1 match, and goals 3:3. (average 1.5:1.5).

Last Results with these Odds

Vilius Gaubas - the odds 2.63 are the expected chance of winning is 35.38%, but this team recently wins 43% of matches with these odds.

Carlos Taberner - the odds 1.44 are the expected chance of winning is 64.62%, but this team recently wins 75% of matches with these odds.

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Vilius Gaubas
ATP Challenger
17.09.25	Vilius Gaubas - Roman Andres Burruchaga	0:2 ✺
Davis Cup World Group II
13.09.25	Vilius Gaubas - Alexis Klegou	2:0 ✺
ATP Challenger
04.09.25	Genaro Alberto Olivieri - Vilius Gaubas	2:1 ✺
03.09.25	Jonas Forejtek - Vilius Gaubas	1:2 ✺
02.09.25	Albert Ramos-Vinolas - Vilius Gaubas	1:2 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 4.8 LWLWW
- Carlos Taberner
ATP Challenger
04.09.25	Ignacio Buse - Carlos Taberner	2:0 ✺
03.09.25	Guy Den Ouden - Carlos Taberner	Den Ouden G. retired ✺
02.09.25	Alex Martinez - Carlos Taberner	1:2 ✺
ATP US Open
19.08.25	Carlos Taberner - Jerome Kym	0:2 ✺
ATP Challenger
09.08.25	Carlos Taberner - Lukas Neumayer	0:2 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 2 L?WLL

Latest Head to Head

ATP Challenger
19.03.25	Carlos Taberner - Vilius Gaubas	2:1
11.08.24	Vilius Gaubas - Carlos Taberner	2:1

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