Match Info

CHALLENGER MEN - SINGLES: Madrid (Spain), clay - 1/16-finals

Date: 8 April 2024, Monday

Referee: Morata Orellana J. (Esp)


	Vilius Gaubas		Stefano Napolitano

	1	2
	2.25	1.57	Watch
	2.25	1.57
	2.2	1.62	Watch
	2.29	1.64
	2.29	1.65
	2.25	1.57	Watch
	2.4	1.54	Watch
	2.31	1.55
Avarage Now (Initially)	2.28 ↓ (2.74)	1.59 ↑ (1.42)

The best margin for this event is 4.3%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Vilius Gaubas
41.1%

Stefano Napolitano
58.9%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

34.1%

65.9%

Our Initial ML Estimation

33.5%

66.5%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Vilius Gaubas has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+7%)

Note: This is a significant improvement in prediction, suggesting increased confidence in Vilius Gaubas's performance.

Stefano Napolitano has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-7%)

Note: This is a significant drop in prediction, and Stefano Napolitano might be facing challenges that affect their performance.

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Vilius Gaubas than the current prediction. (-7.6%)

Note: The ML model's lower estimate suggests that there may be underlying issues with Vilius Gaubas that the model has picked up on.

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Stefano Napolitano than the current prediction. (+7.6%)

Note: The ML model's higher estimate suggests that Stefano Napolitano could outperform expectations, possibly based on recent matchups or player stats.

Who will win by Users?

1	X	2
45.5%	0%	54.5%

Vilius Gaubas - Stefano Napolitano Predictions

Users Predictions: 11 users predict this event. Gaubas will win (votes: 5 - 45.5%). Napolitano will win (votes: 6 - 54.5%).
Confidence interval (95%) for Napolitano: 25.1% – 83.9%.

Expected Score (Market Odds): 0:2

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Preview

Recent matches Gaubas is playing changeable (in the last 5 games wins - 3).

Napolitano is in cheap shape now (in the last 5 games wins - 1).

Gaubas could have advantage in physics - more days for rest in last days.

Napolitano will have a small advantage in this match.

Recently, the players did not play each other.

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Vilius Gaubas
ATP Challenger
26.03.24	Vilius Gaubas - Pedro Martinez Portero	0:2 ✺
25.03.24	Joao Sousa - Vilius Gaubas	0:2 ✺
24.03.24	Nil Regas Luis - Vilius Gaubas	0:2 ✺
18.03.24	Samuel Vincent Ruggeri - Vilius Gaubas	2:0 ✺
17.03.24	Niki Kaliyanda Poonacha - Vilius Gaubas	0:2 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 7.3 LWWLW
- Stefano Napolitano
ATP Marrakech
31.03.24	Matteo Martineau - Stefano Napolitano	Canceled ✺
ATP Challenger
28.03.24	Francesco Passaro - Stefano Napolitano	2:1 ✺
26.03.24	Evan Furness - Stefano Napolitano	0:2 ✺
19.03.24	Nicolas Alvarez Varona - Stefano Napolitano	2:1 ✺
19.03.24	Titouan Droguet - Stefano Napolitano	Canceled ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 3.2 ?LWL?

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