Match Info

CHALLENGER MEN - SINGLES: Segovia, hard - 1/16-finals

Date: 21 July 2026, Tuesday


	Yanki Erel		Sergey Fomin

	1	2
			Watch
	1.40	2.70	Watch
	1.38	2.80
	1.44	3.07
	1.35	2.94	Watch
	1.42	2.85	Watch
	1.39	2.77	Watch
	1.38	2.80
Avarage Now (Initially)	1.39 ↓ (1.4)	2.85 ↑ (2.72)

The most likely Over/Under: 21.50

The best margin for this event is 2%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Yanki Erel
67.1%

Sergey Fomin
32.9%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

66%

34%

Our Initial ML Estimation

63.1%

36.9%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Yanki Erel has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+1.1%)

Sergey Fomin has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-1.1%)

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Yanki Erel than the current prediction. (-4%)

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Sergey Fomin than the current prediction. (+4%)

Yanki Erel - Sergey Fomin Predictions

Expected Score (Market Odds): 2:0

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Preview

Erel is ranked ATP: 341. Fomin is ranked ATP: 297.

Erel is undoubtedly in great shape (last 5 games: 4 wins).

Fomin has been struggling lately (in the last 5 games, wins – 1).

Erel may face physical challenges compared to their opponent, as they have played more matches in recent days.

Erel will hold a modest advantage in this match.

In the last 1 head-to-head match, Erel won 0 matches, drew 0 matches, lost 1 match, and goals 0:0.

Last Results with these Odds

Yanki Erel - the odds 1.4 are the expected chance of winning is 66.02%, but this team recently wins 45% of matches with these odds.

Sergey Fomin - the odds 2.72 are the expected chance of winning is 33.98%, but this team recently wins 22% of matches with these odds.

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Yanki Erel
ATP Challenger
15.07.26	Alejo Sanchez Quilez - Yanki Erel	2:0 ✺
14.07.26	Yanki Erel - Luka Pavlovic	2:0 ✺
ITF Tournaments
11.07.26	Yanki Erel - Oliver Crawford	2:0 ✺
10.07.26	Aren Baybars - Yanki Erel	0:2 ✺
09.07.26	Iliyan Radulov - Yanki Erel	0:2 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 10 LWWWW
- Sergey Fomin
ATP Challenger
06.07.26	Sergey Fomin - Manas Manoj Dhamne	1:2 ✺
29.06.26	Sergey Fomin - Olle Wallin	1:2 ✺
28.06.26	Sergey Fomin - Mircea Alexandru Jecan	2:0 ✺
23.06.26	Sergey Fomin - Max Alcala Gurri	0:2 ✺
26.05.26	Sumit Nagal - Sergey Fomin	2:0 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 1.1 LLWLL

Latest Head to Head

ATP Challenger
17.07.24	Sergey Fomin - Yanki Erel	Erel Y. retired

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