Match Info

ATP - SINGLES: Australian Open (Australia) - Qualification, hard - Quarter-finals

Date: 7 January 2025, Tuesday

Location: Melbourne Park (Melbourne)


	Yosuke Watanuki		Juan Manuel Cerundolo

	1	2
	1.18	4.5	Watch
	1.22	4
	1.19	4.1
	1.24	4.29	Watch
	1.22	4
	1.24	3.94	Watch
	1.19	4.1
Avarage Now (Initially)	1.21 ↓ (1.37)	4.13 ↑ (3.06)

The best margin for this event is 4%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Yosuke Watanuki
77.3%

Juan Manuel Cerundolo
22.7%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

69%

31%

Our Initial ML Estimation

70.8%

29.2%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Yosuke Watanuki has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+8.3%)

Note: This is a significant improvement in prediction, suggesting increased confidence in Yosuke Watanuki's performance.

Juan Manuel Cerundolo has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-8.3%)

Note: This is a significant drop in prediction, and Juan Manuel Cerundolo might be facing challenges that affect their performance.

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Yosuke Watanuki than the current prediction. (-6.5%)

Note: The ML model's lower estimate suggests that there may be underlying issues with Yosuke Watanuki that the model has picked up on.

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Juan Manuel Cerundolo than the current prediction. (+6.5%)

Note: The ML model's higher estimate suggests that Juan Manuel Cerundolo could outperform expectations, possibly based on recent matchups or player stats.

Who will win by Users?

1	X	2
90.9%	0%	9.1%

Yosuke Watanuki - Juan Manuel Cerundolo Predictions

Users Predictions: Yosuke Watanuki will win (10 of 11 users predict this - 90.91%).
Confidence interval (95%): 73.92% – 100%.

Expected Score (Market Odds): 2:0

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Preview

Watanuki is ranked ATP: 374. Cerundolo is ranked ATP: 139.

Watanuki is in actual amazing shape (in the last 5 games wins - 4).

Recent matches Cerundolo is playing unpredictable (in the last 5 games wins - 2).

Cerundolo could have advantage in physics - more days for rest in last days.

In this match Watanuki is a favorite.

Recently, the players did not play each other.

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Yosuke Watanuki
ATP Challenger
01.01.25	Yosuke Watanuki - Martin Landaluce	Landaluce M. walkover ✺
31.12.24	Yosuke Watanuki - Roman Andres Burruchaga	2:1 ✺
30.12.24	Hugo Gaston - Yosuke Watanuki	0:2 ✺
15.11.24	Yosuke Watanuki - Alexander Blockx	1:2 ✺
13.11.24	Terence Atmane - Yosuke Watanuki	0:2 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 8.5 ?WWLW
- Juan Manuel Cerundolo
ATP Hong Kong
29.12.24	Jie Cui - Juan Manuel Cerundolo	2:0 ✺
ATP Challenger
12.11.24	Juan Manuel Cerundolo - Tristan Boyer	0:2 ✺
09.11.24	Vit Kopriva - Juan Manuel Cerundolo	2:1 ✺
08.11.24	Camilo Ugo Carabelli - Juan Manuel Cerundolo	0:2 ✺
06.11.24	Oriol Roca Batalla - Juan Manuel Cerundolo	0:2 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 4.9 LLLWW

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