Match Info

Campeonato Nacional - Losers stage - Round 5

Date: 18 April 2026, Saturday


	Castêlo da Maia		Madalena

	1	2
	1.62	2.1	Watch
	1.67	2.23
	1.59	2.18	Watch
	1.62	2.11
	1.73	1.94
Avarage Now (Initially)	1.65 ↓ (1.71)	2.11 ↑ (1.97)

The most likely Over/Under: 181.50

The best margin for this event is 4.7%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Castêlo da Maia
56.2%

Madalena
43.8%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

53.5%

46.5%

Our Initial ML Estimation

50.6%

49.4%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Castêlo da Maia has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+2.7%)

Madalena has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-2.7%)

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Castêlo da Maia than the current prediction. (-5.6%)

Note: The ML model's lower estimate suggests that there may be underlying issues with Castêlo da Maia that the model has picked up on.

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Madalena than the current prediction. (+5.6%)

Note: The ML model's higher estimate suggests that Madalena could outperform expectations, possibly based on recent matchups or player stats.

Who will win by Users?

1	X	2
0%	0%	100%

Castêlo da Maia - Madalena Predictions

Expected Score (Market Odds): 3:0

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Preview

Both teams are showing inconsistent performances lately.

Recently, Castêlo da Maia has had a series of away games.

In this match, both teams are almost equally likely to win.

In the last 5 head-to-head matches, Castêlo da Maia won 4 matches, drew 0 matches, lost 1 match, and goals 12:8. (average 2.4:1.6).

Including home matches between the teams, Castêlo da Maia won 1 match, drew 0 matches, lost 1 match, and goals 3:4. (average 1.5:2).

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Castêlo da Maia GC
Portuguese Campeonato Nacional Volleyball
11.04.26	Clube K - Castêlo da Maia	3:0 ✺
03.04.26	Santo Tirso - Castêlo da Maia	0:3 ✺
28.03.26	Madalena - Castêlo da Maia	2:3 ✺
22.03.26	Castêlo da Maia - Clube K	2:3 ✺
07.03.26	Santo Tirso - Castêlo da Maia	0:3 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 5.5 LWWLW
- CA Madalena
Portuguese Campeonato Nacional Volleyball
11.04.26	Madalena - Santo Tirso	3:1 ✺
03.04.26	Madalena - Clube K	3:2 ✺
28.03.26	Madalena - Castêlo da Maia	2:3 ✺
21.03.26	Santo Tirso - Madalena	0:3 ✺
07.03.26	SC Espinho - Madalena	3:0 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 3.4 WWLWL

Latest Head to Head

Portuguese Campeonato Nacional Volleyball
28.03.26	Madalena - Castêlo da Maia	2:3
21.12.25	Castêlo da Maia - Madalena	0:3
25.10.25	Madalena - Castêlo da Maia	2:3
01.02.25	Castêlo da Maia - Madalena	3:1
09.11.24	Madalena - Castêlo da Maia	0:3

Castêlo da Maia - Madalena: Predictions, Live Scores & TV Guide