Match Info

NCAA - Bowl

Date: 27 December 2025, Saturday

Where to Watch on TV:


Brazil	ESPN 3


	San Diego State Aztecs		North Texas Mean Green

	1	2
	3.35	1.34
	3.13	1.34
	2.25	1.67
	3.28	1.34	Watch
	3	1.36
	2.95	1.42
	3.4	1.31
Avarage Now (Initially)	3.05 ↑ (2.24)	1.4 ↓ (1.64)

The most likely Over/Under: 53.00

The most likely Handicap: 2 (-7)

The best margin for this event is 4.3%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

San Diego State Aztecs
31.4%

North Texas Mean Green
68.6%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

42.3%

57.7%

Our Initial ML Estimation

43.8%

56.2%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

San Diego State Aztecs has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-10.9%)

Note: This is a significant drop in prediction, indicating that San Diego State Aztecs's form might have worsened.

North Texas Mean Green has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+10.9%)

Note: This is a significant improvement in prediction, suggesting North Texas Mean Green's recent form is better than expected.

ML Model estimates a higher probability for San Diego State Aztecs than the current prediction. (+12.4%)

Note: The ML model's higher estimate suggests a strong performance forecast for San Diego State Aztecs, possibly due to key factors that the model accounted for.

ML Model estimates a lower probability for North Texas Mean Green than the current prediction. (-12.4%)

Note: The ML model's lower estimate suggests a potential downturn for North Texas Mean Green, possibly due to injuries or other negative factors.

Who will win by Users?

1	X	2
0%	0%	100%

San Diego State Aztecs - North Texas Mean Green Predictions

Users Predictions: 3 users predict this event. North Texas will win (votes: 3 - 100%).

Expected Score (Market Odds): 24:31

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Key Events of the Match

1st Quarter (6 - 21)
03:28, Hawkins C. (Touchdown),
03:28, Arenas J. (Extra Point),
08:03, Emanuel Jr. B. (Touchdown),
11:42, Gray A. (Touchdown),
11:42, Arenas M. (Extra Point),
14:50, Hawkins C. (Touchdown),
14:50, Arenas M. (Extra Point),
2nd Quarter (14 - 7)
00:11, Emanuel Jr. B. (Touchdown),
00:11, Plascencia G. (Extra Point),
01:32, Gray A. (Touchdown),
01:32, Arenas M. (Extra Point),
10:24, Ford J. (Touchdown),
10:24, Plascencia G. (Extra Point),
3rd Quarter (0 - 14)
08:26, Hawkins C. (Touchdown),
08:26, Arenas M. (Extra Point),
14:57, Dorner C. (Touchdown),
14:57, Arenas M. (Extra Point),
4th Quarter (27 - 7)
03:57, Crum K. (Touchdown),
03:57, Plascencia G. (Extra Point),
04:19, Acevedo N. (Touchdown),
04:19, Plascencia G. (Extra Point),
09:52, Mestemaker D. (Touchdown),
09:52, Arenas M. (Extra Point),
10:21, Washington C. (Touchdown),
14:59, Crum K. (Touchdown),
14:59, Plascencia G. (Extra Point),

Preview

Recent performances by San Diego State have been up and down (last 5 games: 3 wins).

North Texas is in very good shape now (in the last 5 games, wins – 4).

North Texas will hold a modest advantage in this match.

We predict that North Texas will win today's game, with odds of 1.45.

Recently, the teams have not faced each other.

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- San Diego State Aztecs football
NCAA College Football
28.11.25	New Mexico Lobos - San Diego State Aztecs	23:17 OT ✺
22.11.25	San Diego State Aztecs - San Jose State Spartans	25:3 ✺
15.11.25	San Diego State Aztecs - Boise State Broncos	17:7 ✺
08.11.25	Hawaii Warriors - San Diego State Aztecs	38:6 ✺
01.11.25	San Diego State Aztecs - Wyoming Cowboys	24:7 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 5.1 LWWLW
- North Texas Mean Green football
NCAA College Football
05.12.25	Tulane Green Wave - North Texas Mean Green	34:21 ✺
28.11.25	North Texas Mean Green - Temple Owls	52:25 ✺
22.11.25	Rice Owls - North Texas Mean Green	24:56 ✺
15.11.25	UAB Blazers - North Texas Mean Green	24:53 ✺
01.11.25	North Texas Mean Green - Navy Midshipmen	31:17 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 4.7 LWWWW

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