Match Info

World Baseball Classic - Play Offs - Semi-finals

Date: 16 March 2026, Monday

Location: LoanDepot Park (Miami, FL)

Where to Watch on TV:


Czech-republic	CT sport, Oneplay
Germany	Sportdigital1+
Japan	Netflix
Mexico	FOX One
United-kingdom	TNT Sports 1
Usa	Fox Deportes, Fox Deportes, FOX One, Fox Sports 1


	Italy		Venezuela

	1	2
	2.55	1.54
	2.6	1.52
	2.55	1.55
			Watch
	2.5	1.5
	2.52	1.58
Avarage Now (Initially)	2.54 ↑ (2.36)	1.54 ↓ (1.63)

The most likely Over/Under: 10.00

The most likely Handicap: 2 (-2)

The best margin for this event is 3%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Italy
37.7%

Venezuela
62.3%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

40.9%

59.1%

Our Initial ML Estimation

40.5%

59.5%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Italy has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-3.2%)

Venezuela has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+3.2%)

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Italy than the current prediction. (+2.8%)

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Venezuela than the current prediction. (-2.8%)

Who will win by Users?

1	X	2
50%	0%	50%

Italy - Venezuela Predictions

Users Predictions: 8 users predict this event. Italy will win (votes: 4 - 50%). Venezuela will win (votes: 4 - 50%).
Confidence interval (95%) for Italy: 15.4% – 84.6%.

Verified Performance Core (Selected Experts): 3 Selected Experts predict this event. Italy (votes: 2 - 66.7%). Venezuela (votes: 1 - 33.3%).

Expected Score (Market Odds): 4:6

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Lineups

Batters
10. Antonacci S.	21. Acuna Jr. R.
1. Berti J.	11. Garcia M.
5. Marsee J.	2. Arraez L.
9. Pasquantino V.	7. Suarez E.
4. Dezenzo Z.	14. Tovar E.
14. Caglianone J.	25. Torres G.
11. Fischer A.	16. Abreu W.
28. D'Orazio J.	23. Contreras W.
16. Nori D.	1. Chourio J.
Pitchers
27. Nola A.	54. Montero K.
Coaches
. Cervelli F.	. Lopez O.

Preview

Italy is in fantastic form, winning most of its recent matches (last 5 games: 5 wins).

Venezuela is in very good shape now (in the last 5 games, wins – 4).

Venezuela might have a minor edge in this game.

In the last 2 head-to-head matches, Italy won 0 matches, drew 0 matches, lost 2 matches, and goals 13:15. (average 6.5:7.5).

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Italy baseball
World Baseball Classic
14.03.26	Italy - Puerto Rico	8:6 ✺
11.03.26	Mexico - Italy	1:9 ✺
10.03.26	USA - Italy	6:8 ✺
08.03.26	Italy - Great Britain	7:4 ✺
07.03.26	Italy - Brazil	8:0 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 32.1 WWWWW
- Venezuela baseball
World Baseball Classic
14.03.26	Japan - Venezuela	5:8 ✺
11.03.26	Venezuela - Dominican Republic	5:7 ✺
09.03.26	Nicaragua - Venezuela	0:4 ✺
07.03.26	Venezuela - Israel	11:3 ✺
06.03.26	Venezuela - Netherlands	6:2 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 6.9 WLWWW

Latest Head to Head

World Baseball Classic
13.03.17	Italy - Venezuela	3:4
11.03.17	Italy - Venezuela	10:11

Italy - Venezuela: Predictions, Live Scores & TV Guide