Match Info

World Baseball Classic - Group Stage

Date: 11 March 2026, Wednesday

Location: Daikin Park (Houston, TX)

Where to Watch on TV:


Canada	Sportsnet+
Czech-republic	CT sport Plus
Germany	Sportdigital1+
Italy	Sky Sport Max
Japan	Netflix
Mexico	Disney+, ESPN, Nu9ve, Televisa, Tubi TV
Netherlands	ESPN 3
Usa	FOX One, Tubi TV


	Mexico		Italy

	1	2
	1.53	2.6
	1.58	2.45
	1.52	2.62
			Watch
	1.5	2.5
	1.55	2.6	Watch
Avarage Now (Initially)	1.54 ↑ (1.3)	2.55 ↓ (3.69)

The most likely Over/Under: 7.50

The most likely Handicap: 1 (-3)

The best margin for this event is 3%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Mexico
62.4%

Italy
37.6%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

74%

26%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Mexico has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-11.6%)

Note: This is a significant drop in prediction, indicating that Mexico's form might have worsened.

Italy has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+11.6%)

Note: This is a significant improvement in prediction, suggesting Italy's recent form is better than expected.

Who will win by Users?

1	X	2
40%	0%	60%

Mexico - Italy Predictions

Users Predictions: 5 users predict this event. Mexico will win (votes: 2 - 40%). Italy will win (votes: 3 - 60%).

Verified Performance Core (Selected Experts): 1 Selected Experts predict this event. Italy (votes: 1 - 100%).

Expected Score (Market Odds): 6:3

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Lineups

Batters
16. Duran J.	10. Antonacci S.
56. Arozarena R.	1. Berti J.
8. Aranda J.	5. Marsee J.
30. Kirk A.	9. Pasquantino V.
32. Meneses J.	4. Dezenzo Z.
2. Alvarez Jr. N.	14. Caglianone J.
13. Gonzales N.	11. Fischer A.
5. Thomas A.	28. D'Orazio J.
7. Ortiz J.	16. Nori D.
Pitchers
77. Assad J.	27. Nola A.
Coaches
. Gil B.	. Cervelli F.

Preview

Italy may face physical challenges compared to their opponent, as they have played more matches in recent days.

In this match, Mexico is considered a favorite.

In the last 2 head-to-head matches, Mexico won 0 matches, drew 0 matches, lost 2 matches, and goals 9:10. (average 4.5:5).

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Mexico baseball
World Baseball Classic
09.03.26	USA - Mexico	5:3 ✺
08.03.26	Mexico - Brazil	16:0 ✺
06.03.26	Great Britain - Mexico	2:8 ✺
Friendly International Baseball
03.03.26	Arizona Diamondbacks - Mexico	3:6 ✺
LMB
30.06.25	LMB All Stars - Mexico	3:4 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 7.9 LWWWW
- Italy baseball
World Baseball Classic
10.03.26	USA - Italy	6:8 ✺
08.03.26	Italy - Great Britain	7:4 ✺
07.03.26	Italy - Brazil	8:0 ✺
European Championship Baseball
27.09.25	Netherlands - Italy	6:5 ✺
26.09.25	Czech Republic - Italy	5:8 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 23.9 WWWLW

Latest Head to Head

World Baseball Classic
13.03.17	Italy - Mexico	Canceled
09.03.17	Italy - Mexico	10:9

Mexico - Italy: Predictions, Live Scores & TV Guide