Match Info

Liga Uruguaya - Play Offs - Semi-finals

Date: 28 May 2026, Thursday

Location: Aguada (Montevideo)


	Aguada		Nacional

	1	2
			Watch
	1.7	1.91
	1.75	2
	1.76	1.93	Watch
	1.7	2.01	Watch
Avarage Now (Initially)	1.73 ↓ (1.8)	1.96 ↑ (1.87)

The most likely Over/Under: 178.00

The most likely Handicap: 2 (-1)

The best margin for this event is 7.1%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Aguada
53.2%

Nacional
46.8%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

51%

49%

Our Initial ML Estimation

49.7%

50.3%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Aguada has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+2.2%)

Nacional has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-2.2%)

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Aguada than the current prediction. (-3.5%)

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Nacional than the current prediction. (+3.5%)

Who will win by Users?

1	X	2
100%	0%	0%

Aguada - Nacional Predictions

Users Predictions: Aguada will win (6 of 6 users predict this - 100%).
Confidence interval (95%): 100% – 100%.

Expected Score (Market Odds): 90:90

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Lineups


1. Fernandez M.	33. Barrera B.
14. Gentile A.	8. Cabot M.
3. Osimani J.	88. Carbone J.
6. Pereiras F.	51. Espindola G.
10. Rodriguez J.	4. Feldeine J.
13. Santiso J. (C)	20. Gomez P.
23. Santos L.	2. Imas L.
8. Sims D.	3. Mendez A.
9. Traversa B.	23. Oglivie E.
4. Vidal S.	22. Pereira F.
2. Williams J.	21. Prieto P. (C)
24. Zuvich A.	24. Zinaich C.
Coaches
. Taboada L.	. Ponce A.

Preview

Aguada leads series 2-1. Fourth leg.

In the last 5 head-to-head matches, Aguada won 3.

Aguada is showing really good form (last 5 games: 4 wins).

Nacional's form has been unstable in recent games (in the last 5 games, wins – 3).

In this match, both teams are almost equally likely to win.

In the last 20 head-to-head matches, Aguada won 11 matches, drew 0 matches, lost 9 matches, and goals 1783:1755. (average 89.2:87.8).

Including home matches between the teams, Aguada won 6 matches, drew 0 matches, lost 3 matches, and goals 827:787. (average 91.9:87.4).

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Atletico Aguada
Uruguayan Liga Basketball
25.05.26	Nacional - Aguada	74:87 ✺
21.05.26	Aguada - Nacional	89:109 ✺
18.05.26	Nacional - Aguada	83:96 ✺
12.05.26	Hebraica y Macabi - Aguada	81:85 ✺
09.05.26	Aguada - Hebraica y Macabi	84:74 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 16.4 WLWWW
- Nacional Montevideo Basketball
Uruguayan Liga Basketball
25.05.26	Nacional - Aguada	74:87 ✺
21.05.26	Aguada - Nacional	89:109 ✺
18.05.26	Nacional - Aguada	83:96 ✺
11.05.26	Nacional - Biguá	100:78 ✺
08.05.26	Biguá - Nacional	82:105 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 5 LWLWW

Latest Head to Head

Uruguayan Liga Basketball
25.05.26	Nacional - Aguada	74:87
21.05.26	Aguada - Nacional	89:109
18.05.26	Nacional - Aguada	83:96
25.04.26	Aguada - Nacional	101:82
11.04.26	Nacional - Aguada	101:82
20.12.25	Aguada - Nacional	98:94
20.10.25	Nacional - Aguada	82:79

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