Match Info

NCAA

Date: 7 January 2026, Wednesday


	Arkansas State Red Wolves		Troy Trojans

	1	2
	1.61	2.4
	1.58	2.25
	1.58	2.27	Watch
	1.6	2.35
	1.59	2.24
	1.55	2.5
Avarage Now (Initially)	1.59 ↓ (1.6)	2.34 ↑ (2.12)

The most likely Over/Under: 159.50

The most likely Handicap: 1 (-3)

The best margin for this event is 3.8%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Arkansas State Red Wolves
59.6%

Troy Trojans
40.4%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

57%

43%

Our Initial ML Estimation

58.5%

41.5%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Arkansas State Red Wolves has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+2.6%)

Troy Trojans has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-2.6%)

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Arkansas State Red Wolves than the current prediction. (-1.1%)

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Troy Trojans than the current prediction. (+1.1%)

Arkansas State Red Wolves - Troy Trojans Predictions

Expected Score (Market Odds): 82:79

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Preview

In the last 5 head-to-head matches, Arkansas State won 3.

Recent performances by Arkansas State have been up and down (last 5 games: 3 wins).

Troy is showing top-class performance now (in the last 5 games, wins – 4).

Arkansas State may have a physical advantage due to more rest days in recent times.

Recently, Arkansas State has had a series of away games.

Recently, Troy has had a series of home games.

Arkansas State is expected to have a slight advantage in this match.

In the last 20 head-to-head matches, Arkansas State won 8 matches, drew 0 matches, lost 12 matches, and goals 1485:1490. (average 74.3:74.5).

Including home matches between the teams, Arkansas State won 3 matches, drew 0 matches, lost 5 matches, and goals 588:587. (average 73.5:73.4).

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Arkansas State Red Wolves basketball
NCAA College Basketball
03.01.26	Arkansas State Red Wolves - James Madison Dukes	74:78 ✺
20.12.25	Southern Miss Golden Eagles - Arkansas State Red Wolves	86:93 ✺
17.12.25	Texas State Bobcats - Arkansas State Red Wolves	70:89 ✺
13.12.25	Rice Owls - Arkansas State Red Wolves	77:76 ✺
06.12.25	Arkansas-Little Rock Trojans - Arkansas State Red Wolves	78:90 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 6.2 LWWLW
- Troy Trojans basketball
NCAA College Basketball
03.01.26	Troy Trojans - South Alabama Jaguars	59:49 ✺
31.12.25	Troy Trojans - Texas State Bobcats	100:80 ✺
20.12.25	Troy Trojans - Marshall Thundering Herd	70:63 ✺
14.12.25	UAB Blazers - Troy Trojans	85:86 ✺
01.12.25	Troy Trojans - West Georgia Wolves	89:93 OT ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 9.9 WWWWL

Latest Head to Head

NCAA College Basketball
10.03.25	Troy Trojans - Arkansas State Red Wolves	94:81
15.02.25	Arkansas State Red Wolves - Troy Trojans	70:71
11.01.25	Troy Trojans - Arkansas State Red Wolves	78:84
22.02.24	Arkansas State Red Wolves - Troy Trojans	79:71
15.02.24	Troy Trojans - Arkansas State Red Wolves	71:82
02.03.23	Troy Trojans - Arkansas State Red Wolves	63:59
16.02.23	Arkansas State Red Wolves - Troy Trojans	62:67

Arkansas State Red Wolves - Troy Trojans: Predictions, Live Scores & TV Guide