Match Info

NCAA

Date: 17 December 2025, Wednesday


	Texas State Bobcats		Arkansas State Red Wolves

	1	2
	2.65	1.5
	2.55	1.47
	2.71	1.49
	2.43	1.51	Watch
	2.6	1.5
	2.61	1.51
	2.6	1.52
Avarage Now (Initially)	2.59 ↑ (2.04)	1.5 ↓ (1.65)

The most likely Over/Under: 151.50

The most likely Handicap: 2 (-4)

The best margin for this event is 4%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Texas State Bobcats
36.6%

Arkansas State Red Wolves
63.4%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

44.7%

55.3%

Our Initial ML Estimation

45%

55%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Texas State Bobcats has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-8.1%)

Note: This is a significant drop in prediction, indicating that Texas State Bobcats's form might have worsened.

Arkansas State Red Wolves has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+8.1%)

Note: This is a significant improvement in prediction, suggesting Arkansas State Red Wolves's recent form is better than expected.

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Texas State Bobcats than the current prediction. (+8.4%)

Note: The ML model's higher estimate suggests a strong performance forecast for Texas State Bobcats, possibly due to key factors that the model accounted for.

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Arkansas State Red Wolves than the current prediction. (-8.4%)

Note: The ML model's lower estimate suggests a potential downturn for Arkansas State Red Wolves, possibly due to injuries or other negative factors.

Texas State Bobcats - Arkansas State Red Wolves Predictions

Expected Score (Market Odds): 74:78

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Preview

In the last 5 head-to-head matches, Texas State won 1.

In recent matches, Texas State has shown inconsistent form (last 5 games: 2 wins).

Arkansas State is showing top-class performance now (in the last 5 games, wins – 4).

Arkansas State might have a minor edge in this game.

In the last 20 head-to-head matches, Texas State won 13 matches, drew 0 matches, lost 7 matches, and goals 1416:1368. (average 70.8:68.4).

Including home matches between the teams, Texas State won 7 matches, drew 0 matches, lost 2 matches, and goals 652:607. (average 72.4:67.4).

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Texas State Bobcats basketball
NCAA College Basketball
10.12.25	Texas State Bobcats - Southern University Jaguars	86:83 ✺
03.12.25	Rice Owls - Texas State Bobcats	77:72 ✺
29.11.25	Texas State Bobcats - Lehigh Mountain Hawks	74:78 OT ✺
28.11.25	Seattle Redhawks - Texas State Bobcats	66:52 ✺
21.11.25	Texas State Bobcats - Arkansas-Little Rock Trojans	65:56 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 4.7 WLLLW
- Arkansas State Red Wolves basketball
NCAA College Basketball
13.12.25	Rice Owls - Arkansas State Red Wolves	77:76 ✺
06.12.25	Arkansas-Little Rock Trojans - Arkansas State Red Wolves	78:90 ✺
02.12.25	Arkansas State Red Wolves - Texas-Arlington Mavericks	83:63 ✺
28.11.25	Arkansas State Red Wolves - North Dakota State Bison	85:80 OT ✺
24.11.25	Arkansas State Red Wolves - Jacksonville State Gamecocks	74:63 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 8.6 LWWWW

Latest Head to Head

NCAA College Basketball
01.02.25	Texas State Bobcats - Arkansas State Red Wolves	74:85
25.01.25	Arkansas State Red Wolves - Texas State Bobcats	80:65
20.01.24	Texas State Bobcats - Arkansas State Red Wolves	72:79
11.01.24	Arkansas State Red Wolves - Texas State Bobcats	85:82
09.02.23	Texas State Bobcats - Arkansas State Red Wolves	66:62
12.01.23	Arkansas State Red Wolves - Texas State Bobcats	58:61
17.02.22	Texas State Bobcats - Arkansas State Red Wolves	84:67

Texas State Bobcats - Arkansas State Red Wolves: Predictions, Live Scores & TV Guide