Match Info

ABA League - Round 28

Date: 21 April 2025, Monday

Location: Kosarkaski centar Drazen Petrovic (Zagreb)

Referee: Karovic E. (Bih)

Where to Watch on TV:


Slovenia	Arena Sport 4


	Cibona		Mega Basket

	1	2
	2.8	1.36
	3.7	1.23	Watch
	4.01	1.23
	3.77	1.23
	3	1.36
	3.77	1.24
	3.7	1.23
Avarage Now (Initially)	3.54 ↑ (3.04)	1.27 ↓ (1.33)

The most likely Over/Under: 170.50

The most likely Handicap: 2 (-10)

The best margin for this event is 6.2%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Cibona
26.4%

Mega Basket
73.6%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

30.4%

69.6%

Our Initial ML Estimation

31.6%

68.4%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Cibona has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-4%)

Mega Basket has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+4%)

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Cibona than the current prediction. (+5.2%)

Note: The ML model's higher estimate suggests a strong performance forecast for Cibona, possibly due to key factors that the model accounted for.

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Mega Basket than the current prediction. (-5.2%)

Note: The ML model's lower estimate suggests a potential downturn for Mega Basket, possibly due to injuries or other negative factors.

Who will win by Users?

1	X	2
11.1%	0%	88.9%

Cibona - Mega Basket Predictions

Over/Under & Asian Handicap Predictions by Selected Experts:

AH -3.5, OT - Mega Basket (1.53) (votes: 1 - 100%) .

Users Predictions: Mega Basket will win (8 of 9 users predict this - 88.89%).
Confidence interval (95%): 68.36% – 100%.

Verified Performance Core (Selected Experts): Mega Basket will win (5 of 6 users predict this - 83.33%) 🥉 Bronze Tip.

Overall Expert Consensus (including all markets): 7 Selected Experts predict this event. Cibona (votes: 1 - 14.3%). Mega Basket (votes: 6 - 85.7%).

Expected Score (Market Odds): 80:90

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Lineups

Starting Lineups
24. Katanovic B.	4. Jelavic A.
13. Majcunic I.	7. Kayil J.
3. Radovcic K.	88. Malovec T.
7. Skoric L.	6. Markovic B.
1. Vukovic D.	3. Miljenovic S.
Substitutes
5. Aranitovic P.	34. Jovic F.
21. Bart V.	8. Kroflic U.
8. Bundovic F.	9. Macura S.
23. Pavkovic J.	10. Milijasevic I.
6. Perasovic I.	77. Petrovic M.
2. Rocak T.	44. Tanaskovic D.
9. Smajlagic S.	5. Vukcevic M.
Coaches
. Sesar J.	. Barac M.

Preview

Last 5 head-to-head matches Cibona won 1.

Cibona has a series of defeats in the last matches (in the last 5 games wins - 0).

Recent matches Mega Basket is playing uncertain (in the last 5 games wins - 3).

Mega Basket could have advantage in physics - more days for rest in last days.

In this match Mega Basket is a favorite.

Last 20 head-to-head matches Cibona won 6 matches, drawn 0 matches, lost 14 matches and goals 1619:1694 (average 81:84.7).

Including matches at home between the teams Cibona won 4 matches, drawn 0 matches, lost 6 matches and goals 820:867 (average 82:86.7).

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- KK Cibona
Croatian Premijer Liga Basketball
18.04.25	KK Zadar - Cibona	85:71 ✺
Adriatic League
13.04.25	Cedevita Olimpija - Cibona	96:81 ✺
Croatian Premijer Liga Basketball
11.04.25	Cibona - KK Split	74:87 ✺
09.04.25	Virtus Zagreb - Cibona	103:87 ✺
Adriatic League
07.04.25	Cibona - Crvena Zvezda	81:107 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 0 LLLLL
- Mega Basket
Adriatic League
15.04.25	Mega Basket - Spartak Subotica	97:90 ✺
05.04.25	Borac Čačak - Mega Basket	76:80 ✺
30.03.25	Mega Basket - KK Zadar	75:74 ✺
23.03.25	Mega Basket - Cedevita Olimpija	72:81 ✺
17.03.25	Crvena Zvezda - Mega Basket	81:72 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 5.2 WWWLL

Latest Head to Head

Adriatic League
20.12.24	Mega Basket - Cibona	88:58
11.03.24	Mega Basket - Cibona	80:76
24.11.23	Cibona - Mega Basket	69:83
29.01.23	Cibona - Mega Basket	72:106
23.10.22	Mega Basket - Cibona	93:100 OT (91:91)
09.01.22	Mega Basket - Cibona	93:89
04.10.21	Cibona - Mega Basket	89:84 OT (78:78)

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