Match Info

Basket Liga - Round 21

Date: 5 March 2026, Thursday

Location: Hala Gryfia (Slupsk)


	Czarni Słupsk		Toruń

	1	2
	1.18	4.4	Watch
	1.18	4
	1.15	5.2
	1.25	3.6	Watch
	1.15	4.7
	1.14	5.2
Avarage Now (Initially)	1.18 ↓ (1.75)	4.52 ↑ (1.91)

The most likely Over/Under: 174.50

The most likely Handicap: 1 (-12)

The best margin for this event is 6.2%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Czarni Słupsk
79.4%

Toruń
20.6%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

52.2%

47.8%

Our Initial ML Estimation

57.3%

42.7%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Czarni Słupsk has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+27.2%)

Note: This is a significant improvement in prediction, suggesting increased confidence in Czarni Słupsk's performance.

Toruń has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-27.2%)

Note: This is a significant drop in prediction, and Toruń might be facing challenges that affect their performance.

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Czarni Słupsk than the current prediction. (-22.1%)

Note: The ML model's lower estimate suggests that there may be underlying issues with Czarni Słupsk that the model has picked up on.

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Toruń than the current prediction. (+22.1%)

Note: The ML model's higher estimate suggests that Toruń could outperform expectations, possibly based on recent matchups or player stats.

Who will win by Users?

1	X	2
60%	0%	40%

Czarni Słupsk - Toruń Predictions

Users Predictions: 10 users predict this event. Czarni Słupsk will win (votes: 6 - 60%). Toruń will win (votes: 4 - 40%).
Confidence interval (95%) for Czarni Słupsk: 29.6% – 90.4%.

Verified Performance Core (Selected Experts): 5 Selected Experts predict this event. Czarni Słupsk (votes: 2 - 40%). Toruń (votes: 3 - 60%).

Over/Under & Asian Handicap Predictions by Selected Experts:

AH -5.5, OT - Czarni Słupsk (1.62) (votes: 1 - 100%) .

AH +8, OT - Toruń (1.87) (votes: 4 - 100%) 🥈 Silver Tip.

Overall Expert Consensus (including all markets): 10 Selected Experts predict this event. Czarni Słupsk (votes: 3 - 30%). Toruń (votes: 7 - 70%).

Expected Score (Market Odds): 93:81

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Lineups

Starting Lineups
1. Duffy J.	7. Brenk A.
20. Hines S. T.	77. Kulig D. (C)
11. Lambrecht T.	11. Langovic A.
3. Penn J.	0. Smith A.
9. Wilczek D.	4. Szlachetka M.
Substitutes
2. Carter C.	8. Kenig M.
25. Nowakowski M.	17. Lipinski H.
41. Parzenski J.	10. Lipinski M.
12. Pluta J.	27. Prokopowicz H.
21. Skele A. (C)	19. Szumanski J.
8. Zabrocki C.
Coaches
. Skelin I.	. Subotic S.

Preview

In the last 5 head-to-head matches, Czarni Słupsk won 3.

Czarni Słupsk is going through a rough patch (last 5 games: 1 wins).

Toruń has been unpredictable lately (in the last 5 games, wins – 2).

In this match, Czarni Słupsk is the team to beat.

In the last 20 head-to-head matches, Czarni Słupsk won 6 matches, drew 0 matches, lost 14 matches, and goals 1536:1523. (average 76.8:76.2).

Including home matches between the teams, Czarni Słupsk won 4 matches, drew 0 matches, lost 5 matches, and goals 716:684. (average 79.6:76).

Standings

		Pl	W	L		Pts
12	Czarni Slupsk	1	0	1	76:79	1
14	Torun	1	0	1	85:104	1

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Czarni Słupsk
Polish Basket Liga
15.02.26	Start Lublin - Czarni Słupsk	101:96 ✺
08.02.26	Czarni Słupsk - Legia Warsaw	87:82 ✺
31.01.26	King Wilki Morskie Szczecin - Czarni Słupsk	84:83 ✺
24.01.26	Czarni Słupsk - Dąbrowa Górnicza	88:102 ✺
17.01.26	Czarni Słupsk - Asseco Prokom Gdynia	76:90 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 5.8 LWLLL
- Twarde Pierniki Toruń
Polish Basket Liga
17.02.26	Toruń - MOSiR Krosno	112:105 OT ✺
06.02.26	Toruń - Start Lublin	97:88 ✺
31.01.26	Legia Warsaw - Toruń	82:81 ✺
23.01.26	King Wilki Morskie Szczecin - Toruń	90:82 ✺
16.01.26	Dąbrowa Górnicza - Toruń	90:79 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 3.6 WWLLL

Latest Head to Head

Polish Basket Liga
02.11.25	Toruń - Czarni Słupsk	98:111
Club Friendly Basketball
30.08.25	Toruń - Czarni Słupsk	94:82
Polish Basket Liga
28.02.25	Czarni Słupsk - Toruń	83:89
26.10.24	Toruń - Czarni Słupsk	78:96
27.01.24	Czarni Słupsk - Toruń	90:65
15.10.23	Toruń - Czarni Słupsk	83:82
03.04.23	Toruń - Czarni Słupsk	74:73

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