Match Info
Liga Uruguaya - Play Offs - Semi-finalsDate: 22 May 2026, FridayLocation: Welcome (Montevideo)
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Defensor Sporting |
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Peñarol de Montevideo |
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1 |
X |
2 |
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 |
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 Watch |
 |
2.3 |
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1.48 |
|
 |
2.87 |
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1.36 |
|
 |
2.6 |
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1.41 |
Watch |
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3.75 |
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1.22 |
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 |
2.62 |
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1.39 |
Watch |
Avarage Now
(Initially) |
2.83 ↓
(3.08) |
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1.37 ↑
(1.31) |
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- The most likely Over/Under: 160.00
- The most likely Handicap: 2 (-6)
- The best margin for this event is 8.4%, offered by
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Defensor Sporting
32.7% | Peñarol de Montevideo
67.3% |
Initial Probability
(when we started the analysis)
Our Initial ML Estimation
Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:
Defensor Sporting has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+2.9%)Peñarol de Montevideo has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-2.9%)ML Model estimates a higher probability for Defensor Sporting than the current prediction. (+3.3%)ML Model estimates a lower probability for Peñarol de Montevideo than the current prediction. (-3.3%)Defensor Sporting - Peñarol de Montevideo Predictions
Users Predictions:
4 users predict this event. Defensor will win (votes: 2 - 50%). Peñarol will win (votes: 2 - 50%). Expected Score (Market Odds): 77:83 
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Lineups
| Starting Lineups |
|---|
43.  Colmenares N.
| 30.  Cole N.
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00.  Metzger T.
| 8. Pomoli N.
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77. Soto F. (C)
| 42. Rojas M.
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15. Terra F.
| 10. Serres E. (C)
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3. Weaver E.
| 25. Vescovi S.
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| Substitutes |
|---|
9. Antunes M.
| 22. Bavosi F.
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45. Bianchi M.
| 35. Calimares S.
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27. De Leon F.
| 21. Heilmann C.
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23. MacMullen M.
| 23. Hogan S.
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1. Rudd V.
| 9.  Jau
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7. Soto M.
| 15. Lema N.
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13. Zubiaurre M.
| 19. Quinones L.
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| Coaches |
|---|
. Brea G.
| . Garcia L.
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Preview
Penarol (Uruguay) leads series 1-0. Second leg.In the last 5 head-to-head matches, Defensor won 1.Recent performances by Defensor have been up and down (last 5 games: 3 wins).Peñarol is on a winning streak and currently in very good shape (last 5 games: 5 wins).Defensor may face physical challenges compared to their opponent, as they have played more matches in recent days.Recently, Peñarol has had a series of home games. In this match, Peñarol is a strong favorite.In the last 20 head-to-head matches, Defensor won 7 matches, drew 0 matches, lost 13 matches, and goals 1522:1643. (average 76.1:82.2).Including home matches between the teams, Defensor won 3 matches, drew 0 matches, lost 5 matches, and goals 641:655. (average 80.1:81.9).
Last Results with these Odds
Peñarol de Montevideo - the odds 1.31 are the expected chance of winning is 70.21%, but this team recently wins 88% of matches with these odds.
Form
✺ - easy match;
✺ - difficult match;
Latest Head to Head
| Uruguayan Liga Basketball | | | 19.05.26 | Peñarol de Montevideo - Defensor Sporting | 101:51 | | 11.04.26 | Defensor Sporting - Peñarol de Montevideo | 92:84 OT | | 12.03.26 | Peñarol de Montevideo - Defensor Sporting | 88:80 | | 04.02.26 | Defensor Sporting - Peñarol de Montevideo | 81:84 | | 20.11.25 | Peñarol de Montevideo - Defensor Sporting | 85:72 | | 24.04.25 | Peñarol de Montevideo - Defensor Sporting | 78:84 | | 21.04.25 | Defensor Sporting - Peñarol de Montevideo | 96:93 OT |
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